NBL Basketball / Andy Morris / 28 October 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Only one team looks like potential champions of the NBL right now, and South Dragons should rack up another win this round, writes Andy Morris.

Take a look at the form guide in the NBL, and one team stands out. South Dragons have won five in a row and now hold top spot on the ladder.

Beneath the Dragons, seven teams have gone 3-2 in their last five while the lowly 36ers and Blaze have hit the wall. Adelaide has gone from 2-0 to second-bottom spot after five straight defeats while the Blaze has yet to get off the mark with nine consecutive losses.

The Dragons have now won 78% of their matches, seven better than the nearest challengers the Breakers. But while the Breakers are expected to slip down the ladder once the fixtures start throwing them road trips, South Dragons have been formidable away from home - they have won four and only lost once on the road.

Round 7 throws the Dragons an easy one, at home to the Sydney Spirit. Sydney are 1-3 on the road this season and were beaten by five points by the Dragons on October 17 so I think I'm safe in tipping the Dragons to win at Hisense Arena.

But I don't think the round will be a total bust for Sydney, as I expect them to win in Adelaide. The 36ers have fallen apart, most recently being taken apart by 11 points by the Wildcats. Spirit have been poor on the road but they were a little unlucky to be downed by two points in Townsville last round and I will back them to beat the 36ers at the Distinctive Homes Dome.

The round opens with a tricky one to pick, when the Hawks host the Taipans in Wollongong. The Hawks are eighth on the ladder but have been solid at home, winning four of five. And though the Taipans are four places higher, they take a 2-2 road record into this one.

Wollongong's home record is slightly flattering as their last two wins have come against Adelaide and Gold Coast. And the Blaze nearly upset them last time out before going down 98-96.

On the other hand the Taipans were awful in their last match, scoring only 65 points in losing to the Dragons by 29. The question is whether they can pick themselves up, and I don't think so. I will side with the Hawks in this one.

The two teams meet up again later in the round at the Cairns Convention Centre and again I think this will be a close affair. But the Hawks are 0-4 on the road this season so the sensible option is to back Cairns to exact quick revenge.

The Breakers have built their record on the back of home matches to open the season, and statistically they have the joint-best home record in the competition with four wins from five matches. That should give them confidence when they face the Wildcats in Auckland.

However, Perth has won three matches on the road this season, more than any other team except the Dragons. Their victims have been the Tigers, Crocodiles and most recently the 36ers.

They are the only team to have toppled Melbourne at home, which they did by four points in Round 4. This one is tough to call but I believe Perth can just squeeze by their New Zealand rivals, who were quite poor in their last home match against the Blaze despite racking up 120 points.

Logic dictates that the Tigers, winners of three at home already, will get past the Blaze comfortably at home.

The Breakers are in action twice in this round, their second fixture pitting them against the Crocodiles in Townsville. I don't see the Breakers as worthy of much confidence against a team who are 3-1 on their home court so I will side with the Crocs.

Tips: Dragons to beat Spirit, Spirit to beat 36ers, Hawks to beat Taipans in Wollongong, Taipans to beat Hawks in Cairns, Wildcats to beat Breakers, Crocodiles to beat Breakers, Tigers to beat Blaze.