Tour De France / Editor / 08 July 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Jack Houghton tells us why last year's winner Alberto Contador won't be in the race this year, his thoughts on Cadel Evans' current odds and how Alejandro Valverde may be a decent bet at this stage of proceedings.

Last year's Tour De France winner, Alberto Contador, won't be there this year. Neither will his team-mate, last year's third, Levi Leipheimer. Previous members of the now disbanded Discovery Team, their new Astana outfit hasn't received an invitation to this year's race. This eases the task of those cyclists hoping for a 2008 Tour win, whilst not necessarily easing the race-puzzle for punters. But complexity can often bring bigger-priced winners, and there are certainly a number of attractive prices on offer in this year's Tour: provided we can properly interpret the scant evidence at our disposal.

The Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, an eight-stage road-race held in early June, is often the best guide when looking for Tour De France hopefuls. The timing and nature of the event - five weeks prior to the Tour and possessing mountain and time trial stages similar to those faced in July - make it a popular warm-up event for those targeting a Champs-Élysées podium finish.

In fact, eight of the last 15 Tours have been won by a cyclist who used the Dauphiné Libéré as their warm-up. Admittedly, this statistic is skewed massively by Lance Armstrong having chosen the race as part of his preparation before all but one of his Tour wins. But dodgy statistic aside, those cyclists who compete well in stages of the Dauphiné Libéré repeatedly perform well in the crucial mountain stages of the Tour.

As I've written elsewhere, I won't be having a bet in this year's Tour until it starts. But if pressed, given their relative performances in the Dauphiné Libéré, I would be a layer of Cadel Evans at his current odds of [3.8], and a backer of Alejandro Valverde at around [5.6]. Not only did Valverde win this year's Dauphiné Libéré, but he dominated Evans in all the crucial departments: taking 37 seconds out of Evans on the Joux-Plan and reeling in Evans and Leipheimer after their attack on the Croix-de-Fer. Perhaps most significantly, Valverde won the individual time trial: the stage that cost him any chance of victory in last year's Tour.

It's true to say that riders have often thrown in uninspiring Dauphiné Libéré performances before going on to win the Tour (Lance only won this preparation race twice). Many enter the race whilst still in heavy training periods; only tapering for the Tour itself.

Nonetheless, I would not want to be a backer of Evans at half the price of Valverde based on a factor as unquantifiable as whether or not one of them had benefited from more rest before the Dauphiné Libéré. But for a disastrous time trial in last year's Tour, Valverde would have finished ahead of Cadel; and I believe he will do so this year.

Among the Dauphiné Libéré also-rans there is more interest in terms of Tour betting. Haimar Zubeldia (not to be confused with Joseba Zubeldia) finished fifth this year, a position he has twice filled in previous Tours. Some might think that "fifth" about sums up his talents, but with two who finished ahead of him last year absent this, the [15.5] currently on offer in the Top 3 market looks appealing.

Another is Carlos Sastre. He finished 20th in the Dauphiné Libéré but is on record as saying he made no attempt to challenge for honours, instead using the race purely for training purposes. But at [20.0] in the win market, and [4.1] for a podium finish, he looks way too short to me. He was only a minute or so ahead of Zubeldia last year and doesn't deserve to be a quarter of the odds this time around.

A few riders have bypassed the Dauphiné Libéré in favour of less popular prep programmes. Denis Menchov, fifth in this year's Giro D'Italia, looks massively under-priced at his current odds of [8.4]. The Giro doesn't have a great record as a Tour prep and anyway, his best Tour finish of sixth in 2006, coupled with a number of unconvincing performances during tough mountain stages, make him an unlikely Tour winner.

Two riders who have ignored any kind of recognised Tour prep are Andy Schleck and Damiano Cunego. Schleck was second in the 2007 Giro D'Italia and will ride in his first Tour this year. He is undoubtedly talented, but [16.5] is a short price to take about a rider tackling this race, and these riders, for the first time. Cunego makes slightly more appeal at the same odds. The best young rider on the 2006 Tour, his second-place on the infamous L'Alpe D'Huez mountain stage that year bodes well for his future, especially in a race that is won or lost in the mountains. But, like Schleck, there are too many unknowns about his ability to perform consistently across the three weeks of the Tour to make his price attractive.

My advice remains to keep your hands in your pockets until July 5th; but if you can't resist, then lay Cadel Evans at [3.8]. That's way too short.