/ Ed Hawkins / 17 September 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

England are short already in the betting, says Ed Hawkins, and if they bat first at the Oval on Friday those odds will look really short.

Team news
With the international cricket community refusing to set foot in the country, the travelling circus that is Pakistan's cricket team is need of a new home. Perhaps The Oval fits the bill. Having beaten England there in a Test match a month ago, they should feel comfortable in their surrounds.

Pakistan have picked the same XI twice in the series and there is a feeling that after 24-run and four-wicket defeats, they are missing a player capable of pushing them over the line. Abdul Razzaq, the hard-hitting all-rounder, could be that man but it looks unlikely Fawad Alam or Asad Shafiq will make way.

The Akmal brothers have made a welcome return to form with the willow while Mohammad Yousuf, averaging only 27 so far, is in need of runs. Umar Gul, the fast bowler, is vulnerable having conceded eight an over.

England should be unchanged from the side that has pout them 2-0 up. But there are signs of waywardness with the ball. Stuart Broad (7.50 economy rate), Tim Bresnan (6.70) and Michael Yardy (6.50) have been expensive and could be so again on a flat wicket.

Venue and conditions
The Oval has a reputation for run-making but the average first-innings score in the last 10 ODIs there is a surprisingly low 231. Still it is comfortably the most batsman-friendly of the surfaces we have seen so far, and judging by Pakistan's performance in the Test match it should suit their style.

However, there is a toss bias which should intrigue. In 19 ODIs this decade, 13 have been won by the side batting second, a stat which goes some way to confirming the true nature of the wicket. The toss is important then so make sure you don't go too heavy before the flip.

Match odds
Pakistan are getting better and closer to a first victory of the series. Granted, they were tepid in game one at the Riverside but in Leeds - another home from home - they were impressive and showed willingness to guts it out in a tight contest.

The worry about taking the [3.4] is that they are such an unpredictable side - good performances follow bad or vice versa - that we could be on the receiving end of something truly dreadful.

Those fears are allayed, though, by the toss bias. There is a gulf between the sides, make no mistake, but at Leeds Pakistan suggested it was not as large as the odds suggested and with the game potentially being decided by a heads or tails call, then the shrewd move has to be to back Shahid Afridi's men.

England are [1.39] which is plenty short enough. Indeed, if they bat first it could prove to be a dreadful price.

Top batsman
In the 2000s, Marcus Trescothick scored more runs at The Oval than any other Englishman. Vikram Solanki is the third highest scorer in the same list. In terms of ability it is an unfair comparison but they were united by a lack of feet movement and ability to make it count when the ball went straight up and down.

Make no mistake that it is the hitters who come to the fore at this venue. So we should expect runs from Steven Davies, on his home ground, and probably Kamran Akmal again. Both can hit through the line with abandon.

Davies is [5.40] and although Andrew Strauss, who is [4.30] and Jonathan Trott, [4.70] have to be respected, Davies has the potential to go off like a rocket. He is [3.25] to score a 50. A worthy wager. Davies is [1.96] to outscore Strauss in a match bet. Watch out, too for Ravi Bopara. He averages more than 50 at the ground.

Kamran Akmal is [4.90] joint-favourite with Yousuf. He deserves to be outright jolly because he could be 30 ahead by the time Yousuf gets in. Afridi, who might be capable of hanging around, is [5.20] for top-bat under Any Other. Akmal is [3.00] for another 50.

Recommnded Bet: Back Pakistan if they field first