The weekend Warriors
/ Jake Norton / 23 January 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now
MATHEW THOMPSON AND JAKE NORTON take us through the weekends tips.
Now last week I flew a solo, writes Mathew Thompson, and my tips were a case of 'what could have been' with one out of three landing the money.
It's the Australia Day long weekend! What better way to embrace our national spirit than by having a flutter on the feast of sport to take place right across our big, brown land!
J: Here here Thomo, - Paint me green and gold and bust out the lamingtons and cordial; it's good to be Australian this weekend, and even better to be a punter.
M: Now last week I flew a solo, and my tips were a case of 'what could have been' with one out of three landing the money.
Still, 33% isn't all that bad especially given we nailed the outsiders NSW to upset the Vics in the Twenty20 Cricket. Ironically, the same teams meet in the final on Saturday night.
Of the others, KJ Choi finished tied for 12th in the Sony Open, only one stroke away from us getting the cash for a top 10 finish, and the less said about Count To Zero in the Chester Manifold at Flemington, the better.
I am confident that we can bounce back with a 100% result on the weekend to add some extra space to the long weekend celebrations.
J: Mat, rule 101 of punting - everything is easy in hindsight. So let's get on with the show.
THE MORAL
Selection 1 - Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United - Over 2.5 goals
M: This has to be the banker.
With a round left before the finals, Adelaide are vying for the minor premiership. They deserve it after the season of dreams to date and the icing in the cake would be the minor premiership, premiership double.
The Central Coast will either be fighting for a place in the finals, or more likely have their spot confirmed. In that case, coach Lawrie McKinna will rest some key players due to niggles and yellow card trouble.
The Reds have been outstanding all season and can attack with the best teams in the A-League. Their structure is the best in the competition and they are in great form. I would be surprised if they can't find the net at least twice against a suspect Central Coast defensive unit.
The goals have been raining in the Mariners last two games where the scoreboard has read 3-nil (loss to the Melbourne Victory) and 4-3 (loss to Queensland.)
Either way, and open game is assured.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE
Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide United - Under 2.5 goals
J: Central Coast's prowess in front of the onion bag is annulled by its consistent haemorrhaging at the back end. Having scored the second-highest number of goals in the A-League this season behind the renowned Melbourne Victory scoring machine, the Mariners certainly know how to find the back of the net.
United, by comparison, would prefer to squeeze the life out of a match and score on the counter-attack, a style of play that had made Italian soccer the powerhouse it is. Accordingly they have conceded just 19 goals in their 20 fixtures this season; clearly the best defensive record in the league.
At this time of year, however, shoot-outs are a rarity; the Mariners' superior goal difference over their nearest rival in Wellington suggests that they'll be happy for a nil-all result. It must be remembered that a single point will see then advance into the finals. Granted, Adelaide need a high-scoring victory to win the Premiership (awarded to the 'minor' premier in the parlance of other football codes), but Central Coast will be desperate to defend with all their might. This we be a low-scoring stoush.
THE VALUE
Selection 2 - Mind Your Head (each-way) Carlyon Stakes, Moonee Valley.
M: This tough galloper seems to get better with age.
I was with him last start when he upset the odds-on favourite Lucky Secret in the Rubiton Stakes over 1100m at Caulfield.
The 6YO his improved vastly with each run this prep and meets Lucky Secret the same at the weights this time in.
I am reluctant to take the shortish odds about Light Fantastic. Yes, the horse was outstanding first up last campaign where he beat Weekend Hussler, but that was at Caulfield too, and Light Fantastic came from well back in the field.
Night meetings at the Valley have typically provided a front runners bias and I doubt that Light Fantastic can lead from barrier one. I have it two back the fence in running and Craig Newitt will need to be at his absolute best to give the grey a decent crack at them around the turn.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE
J: Contrary to his name, Lucky Secret is one of the most unlucky horses in the land. Constant misfortune where injury and track conditions are concerned have restricted him from being the superstar he potentially is.
He's a far, far better animal than his last-start conqueror, Mind Your Head, and will prove this at the Valley. Mind Your Head - the far fitter horse a fortnight ago, where he also had all the favours in running - is simply not in Lucky Secret's class, and it cannot be forgotten that Tony Vasil's charge was still as fat as a house on his home track.
Lucky Secret has won 5 from 6 at the Valley, and despite the presence of gun galloper Light Fantastic, should strip fitter here and go on to win. The fact that punters have not installed him a short-priced favourite is puzzling on paper.
Of the others, Mr Baritone looks huge overs, and a good each-way hope at odds. He's three-from-six at the course (five times placed) and is a good fresh horse. He'll be getting home strongly late.
ONE FOR THE ROAD
Lay of the weekend - Pat Perez, Bob Hope Classic
M: The perennial bridesmaid of the USPGA tour is known for his unique ability to implode when he looks all over a winner. Perez has been a tour pro since 1997 and has won just two tournaments heading into his 12th year.
Perez leads by two-strokes after the second round of the 90-hole Bob Hope tournament, where birdies are more common than a snake exhibition at the zoo.
Perez is $4.40 to back and $4.60 to lay with three rounds still left in the tournament.
He can't win a four round event. If he wins a five-round tournament, it will be an Australia Day miracle.
Trade around D.J. Trahan (backing him now) - Bob Hope Classic
J: As 2008 winner, D.J Trahan plays this obscure, five-round tournament well. And at just 28, this six-foot-three up-and-comer is on the improve.
He finished fourth in the U.S. Open last year, and having shot consistent scores in the first two rounds at La Quinta, finds himself in a good position with three rounds to play.
If you can back him around the 30.0 mark, expect him to continue his consistent scoring, and tighten into a shorter quote, enabling you to lay him and lock yourself in a profit, irrespective of the result.
