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AFL Betting: Pies to get revenge

Friday night's Grand Final rematch between Collingwood and Geelong at the MCG is the AFL match most grabbing Betfair InFormer Mark Ricciuto's attention this weekend in what shapes up to be an important game for both sides.



Collingwood are flying under the radar a little, having won their last four games after an ordinary start.


They also look set to regain a host of players, with Darren Jolly, Dale Thomas and Chris Dawes returning from injury. The inclusion of Dawes in particular is sure to stretch a Geelong defence, which is likely to miss Matthew Scarlett and Tom Gillies.


Yet you'd be game to write the reigning premiers off and I'd expect them to improve on their poor showing last week, particularly with Jimmy Bartel set to return.


While I think it will be a close one, Collingwood's forward line will be too strong for an undermanned Cats defence.


The annual 'Dreamtime at the G' game will take place again this Saturday night between Essendon and Richmond.


Both sides are coming off terrific wins in round seven, the Bombers thumping an injury-depleted West Coast by 61 points, and the Tigers dominant over the Swans, winning by 29 points. And both sides are improving, clearly evident when looking at some key stats.


Essendon are first in the competition for kicks and inside 50s, second for contested marks and goal assists, and third for contested possession.


On the flip side, Richmond are using the ball much better this year, equal first for disposal efficiency, and second for handballs and disposals. Essendon look set to welcome back key-forward Michael Hurley, with Tayte Pears, David Myers and Mark McVeigh also in the mix.


Richmond will be sweating on the fitness of back up ruckman Ty Vickery, who will be needed to support Ivan Maric in a battle against the in-form Essendon duo of Patrick Ryder and Tom Bellchambers.


To win, a key for Essendon will be to stop Jack Riewoldt, who has averaged four goals in his past three encounters against the Dons. All in all this should be a terrific game, and if you're an Essendon believer, you could have look at the Bombers to win @Betfair odds of (1.58)


Adelaide travel to Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon to tackle Carlton in what will be another challenge for a vastly-improved Crows outfit.


Carlton will be looking to respond after a poor performance against St Kilda on Monday night.


While the Crows will have an extra two days break, the loss of Taylor Walker to suspension is a big one. Adelaide (3.05) have answered the challenges of the previous few weeks, and there is no reason why they couldn't do it again.


The final match of the round between the Eagles and Saints is also one of great interest. If they play like they did Monday night, the Saints are every chance, with a great record in the west, having won their last five at Patersons Stadium.


However, it's very hard to make a case given their first seven rounds when you compare them to the Eagles. You'd expect a response from the Eagles after a heavy loss, and they'll also regain important defender Will Schofield, and possibly even the excitement machine Nic Naitanui.


My best bets of the week are the Kangaroos and the Western Bulldogs to cover their respective lines.


The Kangaroos travel to Adelaide to take on the Power and will be keen to atone for a poor showing last week against the Bulldogs.


While both sides are coming off a six-day break, the Power will have to return from WA, which is always tough. Port look as though they've lost some direction after a reasonable start to the year, and failed to respond after a poor game against Richmond in round six.


It's difficult to expect a response this week with their confidence so low, and the Roos should cover the line of 15.5 points here.


The Bulldogs will take on the Suns full of confidence after a good showing against Collingwood and a great win against the Kangaroos.


Despite the lack of a key forward, they are showing signs Brendan McCartney's game plan is beginning to sink in. The Dogs have the benefit of having played at Darwin's TIO Stadium previously, and will be familiar with the preparation required to perform in the humid conditions.


While you'd expect the Suns to respond from their disappointing loss in the 'expansion cup', I'm not sure they'll be good enough to stop the Dogs, who should win here by at least 33.5 points.

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