Tennis / John Harms / 02 July 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

With a few (too many) clicks of the mouse, it can be either feast or famine in Betfair land. Or so John Harms has been recently discovering.

It was always going to be a big week on the mouse - and it was.

Sitting in the dead cold of a Canberra night, red gum flickering away in the fireplace, hoping the kids wouldn't stir, clicking away as the goals went in, and the forehand winners were struck down the Wimbledon line.

This has been a big week in punting.

The English football team, with its history of courting tragedy, proved to be as lucrative as some of us thought it would, in a punting sense, with the World Cup tournament winner market being particularly volatile during matches. The surprising thing was, against all predictions, Pommy Betfair customers were desperately trying to lay their own team.

So the Betfair press release suggested, anyway.

Old England had stumbled in to the Round of 16, partly because the Slovenians couldn't protect a 2-0 lead against the Americans, and couldn't find a way to overcome England herself. Then, at 2-0 down against the Germans, and looking completely outplayed, England were any old price, and those of us who'd laid them, took it, just in case.

It proved a wise decision when Upson clawed one back in the 37th minute, because you could lay again, and back, as the price was fluctuating considerably. When, soon after, Frank Lampard's shot hit the crossbar, and appeared to have crossed the line, it was bedlam. At the instant, people sensed the Jabulani had crossed the line, those punters with their fingers on the mouse ready to fire, did so, bringing the price in to parity with the pre-match trading.

Chaos ensued.

Was it a goal?

The key to Betfair is that for every backer there is a layer. No it wasn't a goal. And so, those who had backed England at the shorter odds (of about $11 again) were caught out.

Badly.

They desperately needed England to score again, and then again. They desperately needed this match to become like a 1950s tie, when Uruguay and Hungary and sides like that would play in matches with score-lines 6-3.

It was always going to be tough for England. They had to attack; had to push everyone forward, which left them vulnerable on the counter attack. And that's exactly what happened. A quick clearance led to a simple pass to the right for Muller to score, and then just minutes later he'd found the net again. It was fast, open, exciting soccer. Great if you were a German fan - or had laid the English.

Meanwhile, the men's draw at Wimbledon was just as volatile. Surely Roger Federer was under the odds when he got in to $2.70 to win the tournament during the first week? At one stage, both he and Nadal were under $3. All the evidence showed that the price was fluctuating considerably within matches, and that he wasn't going to find an early break and serve out every set he played in.

He was not at the peak of his powers (nor was Nadal, nor Murray), and games, sets and matches were all battles for him. Even points. So $6 offerings would appear, and you'd even be wondering whether that was worth it at all.

In his ultimate match against Berdych, again the market fluctuated lucratively. At times during the third and fourth sets, Federer was out to $20, which was hard to resist. Punters just had to pick their moment, and watch cautiously the size of their bet.

Being greedy is no way to survive in Betfair trading.

Then, there is our old favourite, Novak Djokovic.

When he starts to look stuffed, and his face goes the colour of milk that's been in the sun, and he's grabbing at his stomach, my advice to you is back, back, back. Back Djokovic. However, plenty of punters backed his opponent Lleyton Hewitt at triple figures, and took some profit as Djokovic laid there, munching on Quick-Eze, popping aspirin, and generally looking inches from death. He recovered.

And as for laying Andy Murray?

Those bets were looking very good, with Jo-Wilfred Tsonga on fire during the first set of their quarter final. The Frenchman took the tie-breaker, and Murray's tournament price blew. It would have blown to any old price had Tsonga not let a ball go, which then fell a mile inside the baseline. That was a significant turning point.

So, it's RSI for the punters of the world at the moment.

And guilty faces, as The Handicapper pops her head into the lounge room at 3am to find you clicking away and watching tennis, surrounded by empty Burger Ring packets and drained bottles of port (down to the sherry at our place now).

The ridiculous thing is, I have had two moments of madness and they have cost me dearly. I was too greedy with Federer. I zigged when I should have zagged, which gobbled up a fair percentage of a tidy Wimbledon profit.

But I still have a black book.

And early-tournament laying of Brazil, Spain and The Netherlands are starting to put some pressure on my balance in the World Cup. At least the Argentineans and the Germans are still in there, and I can get out of it OK.

And, by the way, the tennis and the soccer have been pretty good as well.