Scott Ferguson on the Australian Open Semi Finals
Tennis 
/ Lindsay Andrew / 27 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now
Andy Murray has navigated through his draw with much less pomp and hysteria than last year
Women's Semi-Finals
When the world no.1 faces the no.11 on her favourite surface, it's a little bizarre to see the top seed priced up as the outsider. That's the case here with punters making Wozniacki the underdog here in her quest for that elusive Grand Slam.
The Dane showed she was tough in a grinding win over Schiavone fighting back from 3-6 1-3. She did have her right thigh taped and looked uncomfortable at times, but a significant percentage of women have one thigh taped on court - it's a manageable injury and you can be certain the trainer will be called out strategically to disrupt her opponent's momentum and remove some of the discomfort.
Wozniacki is handling the pressure well. By reaching the semi here, she will retain her no.1 ranking whatever happens, but in the eyes of the hard-marking media and cynical fans, it won't be a genuine no.1 ranking until she wins one Grand Slam title, and probably more.
On official tournament data, Li leads the h2h 2-1, with wins here and in Sydney in 2010 but Wozniacki was victorious in their most recent clash, the annual Hong Kong exhibition in early January, making the true record two wins apiece. Li reached the semis here last year and stretched eventual winner Serena Williams in the semi. China has never had a player in a Grand Slam singles final but that record is on borrowed time with recent semi-final appearances from Li Na and Zheng Jie. This is Asia's Grand Slam - if an Aussie can't win it then the next best thing has to be someone from a similar timezone.
I'm tied in to Li for the title and think she should win this, but I don't see any value at the price. If anything, Wozniacki is the value - odds-against for the world no.1 on her favourite surface is a bit silly I think, although the high of 2.46 has long gone. She's now a slightly more realistic [2.18]
Clijsters (1.71) v Zvonareva (2.38)
This is a repeat of US Open final when Clijsters wiped the court with her Russian rival, 2 & 1. One could be excused for expecting a repeat performance here but perhaps that scoreline was the exception rather than the rule between this pair. In New York, Clijsters, now the three-time winner, seems to play on a different level. Clijsters leads the h2h 6-3 but the new, tough Zvonareva has won three of the four encounters since the Belgian supermum returned to the circuit. In their other three 2010 clashes, they were all earlier rounds and twice the Russian prevailed after losing the first set. Be ready to lay Clijsters at a short price if she bounces to an early lead.
'Aussie' Kim (she must be sick of that by now surely)'s run throughout the rounds hasn't been that smooth - Cornet, Makarova and Radwanska have all made her work when facile victories were expected. She's not over the line here by any stretch of the imagination, and the market knows it, making her a relatively narrow favourite at [1.7]. But remember, she has gears - we haven't seen the best of her yet this fortnight.
Zvonareva defied the doubters with a straight-sets win over Kvitova and has her heart set on going one better than just being a finalist at Wimbledon and the US Open. Her form is pointing in the right direction, she dropped a set in R2 to Jovanovski which blew out a few cobwebs. Ever since then, she's been a lot more focused and her game has stepped up. Three wins over Clijsters in 12 months is a massive boost to her confidence, as is this match not being in the final - she's yet to conquer the nerves in finals, with an awful 1-9 record in the trophy match.
From a selfish angle, I'd like to see Zvonareva win this as I think she is less of a threat to my outright bet on Li. From a match betting perspective, the odds on Clijsters have drifted so far they now start to look value. I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place here - if forced to have a bet, I'd back Clijsters 2-0 at [2.76]
Men's Semi-Finals
What a cracking encounter for a semi-final, and the betting suggests this one will probably be closer than ever. The Serb is on a roll lasting several months now - after reaching the US Open final, he led Serbia to their maiden Davis Cup trophy, a feat he would rank above any other in his career so far. Little has phased Novak so far and in this form, he knows he is in with a genuine shot of beating the one many deem to the the GOAT (Greatest of all Time).
The slate between this pair goes back a long way, but restricting it to the Slams, it stands at 4-2 to Federer. with Novak's wins being in last year's epic US Open semi (7-5 in the fifth), and in the 2008 semi here. Since the US Open defeat, Federer has returned fire with three straight wins (Shanghai, Basel and ATP Tour Finals) all over the shorter distance. Short form is not what we are worried about with the Swiss champion, it's how his body is holding up to a tough career on the circuit - dropping just one percent over five arduous sets against a younger, keener opponent could be all that is needed to send him home. The way Djokovic is playing at the moment, it could really come down to just a couple of points.
I'm on record as saying Federer won't win another Grand Slam title and I won't be backing down from that now. With Nadal out of the way, it looks like a gilt-edged chance for Fed to claim Slam title no.17, but on the flipside, every other remaining player is salivating at the chance to win a big one too.
Despite wishing to oppose Federer, I don't think there's a great deal of value here. The world is keen to lay Federer, pushing his odds out to something quite respectable to back. Remember last year's final when many of us got caught up in the Andy Murray hype? Federer's odds drifted out to something completely disrespectful of his record and he promptly wiped the court with Murray to teach us all a lesson.
Apart from the first few days of the tournament, we haven't really seen any classic men's matches. I'm hoping that trend is overturned here with a tense five-setter which has everyone on the edge of their seats. Whoever wins will receive an extra day's rest anyway to recover.
The heart is saying bet on a five-setter [3.6], the head says sit back and watch a classic match.
A turn-up for the books here without the no.1 seed but I doubt family Murray will be crying about that. David Ferrer has surprised me with his run to the semis although he has had his main dangers removed from his path rather than charging through them - Nalbandian retired, Youzhny was knocked out by Raonic and then Nadal was clearly injured so it hasn't been the toughest draw to overcome for the Valencian. As they say though, you can only beat the opponents in front of you.
Andy Murray has navigated through his draw with much less pomp and hysteria than last year. The highest seed he has faced was no.11 Jurgen Melzer, the more dangerous Soderling and Tsonga were removed from his path by Dolgopolov, a player with a similar game to the Scot, with an innate ability to cope with the big hitters via a wilier brain. Murray has been here before. Last season the expectations were ridiculous and then he was blown away in the final. This time, the pressure is nowhere near as high and he has the experience to handle it much better.
Ferrer leads the h2h record 3-2 but all of his wins have been on clay. Their battles on hardcourt have all been over swiftly, with three of the four sets ending 6-2 to Murray. The Spaniard is probably in the best form of his career, but his style of play is something the Scot will eat up for breakfast on this surface. He will run and he will counter-punch. To beat Murray on hardcourt, you have to be a lot more aggressive with a low error count. I can't see Ferrer keeping up here, it's look Murray in the final yet again.
Too close on all counts I think. The only player I can safely say won't win is David Ferrer (18.5) - everyone else is right in there with a genuine shot.
