French open / Andy Morris / 22 May 2009 / 4 Comments

An unfair statement perhaps, but we would bet serious money on Rafael Nadal holding the Coupe des Mousquetaires high again this year, writes Julie-Ann Amos.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made sure that no one else has got close to being in the final at the Roland Garros venue since 2005. That year, Nadal beat Roger in the semis and went on to win the title.

But Federer has not really had a look in when it comes to having a chance of winning that final in the last three years. He has never managed to stretch things to five sets, and last year Nadal virtually crushed him. Federer got a measly four games in before Nadal lofted the trophy above his head; he simply wasn't allowed to win any more than that.

And this year there is even more reason to suspect that Federer won't have a shot at the title. Since Nadal beat him at Wimbledon last year he has been on something of a downward spiral. Some think he is past his best and Nadal is the new king of tennis. It certainly seems that way, and we wouldn't bet against Nadal making it five titles in a row at Roland Garros.

Put simply, we just don't think Roger Federer has it in him to win this thing any more. His performance in the final over the past three years has been getting worse not better. That is in stark contrast to the way that Nadal got closer and closer to beating him on his turf at Wimbledon, before finally doing it last year.

We suspect Roger may not even make it as far as the semis this time. Mind you, Grand Slam events do strange things to tennis players - a poor performance can suddenly be replaced by something altogether different as the Grand Slam gets underway.

Miracles can happen, but they happen a lot less often on clay tennis courts. You can either play on them or you can't - and we don't think Roger Federer can, not this year and not any other either.