Australian Open Men's Final: Federer's Fourteenth
Roger Federer is set to equal the fourteen Grand Slam titles won by Pete Sampras this Sunday evening with a win over nemesis Rafael Nadal, writes Nick Tedeschia
The men's semi-finals of the Australian Open told quite the story.
Roger Federer had little problem disposing of long-time punching bag Andy Roddick in straight sets on Thursday night. Federer was ruthlessly clinical is ending Roddick's Australian Open with a classy display of precision and skill.
Rafael Nadal, by contrast, was surprisingly engaged in a five-set arm wrestle with compatriot Fernando Verdasco in what turned out to be the longest match ever played at the Australian Open. Nadal eventually gained the ascendancy but not before his energy reserves were tested and his will tried in one of the all-time great matches.
Federer, on an extra day's rest and without a behemoth of a semi-final to worry about, clearly has an edge going into Sunday night's Australian Open final.
While Nadal holds a 12-6 head-to-head record between the two, Federer does have the edge on hard courts with a 3-2 lead. Nadal hasn't defeated Federer on a hard court since Dubai in 2006. The last two times Federer and Nadal have played on the hard court, Nadal failed to win a set.
For mine, Federer will win the final and win well.
This provides a number of wagers with the best bet in the Nadal +2.5 Games market. Federer is going to run away with it in the end and spotting Nadal 2.5 games at anything better than 1.75 seems a good wager.
Traders can also have a small bet spotting Nadal 5.5 games at 3.50 or better in the Nadal +5.5 Games market. Nadal is going to be extremely tired and it would not surprise that if he gets down a game or two that he will just "give up" on the set and blow out the games differential.
The Total Games market also provides a bet with the under 42.5 games a sound wager. Take away their classic Wimbledon clashes and Federer and Nadal do not tend to have close matches. This could be a bit of a blowout and the under looks a sturdy wager at better than 1.85.
Our final bet is on Roger Federer to win the third set in the Set 03 Winner market. As the game goes longer, Federer will be more advantaged. Nadal will come out blazing but will fade. Look to bet Federer to win the third at 1.55 or greater.