Australian Open Tennis / Guy McCrea / 23 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

After Justine Henin's exit and with Serena Williams absent, Kim Clijsters is the clear favourite to win her first Australian Open. Guy McCrea asks if anyone can stop the Belgian...

It's hard to understand why Kim Clijsters ([2.42] favourite on Betfair to win the Australian Open) has never triumphed in Melbourne before. After all, she's definitely one of the best outdoor hard court players of her generation. Three U.S. Open singles titles plus three year-end WTA Championship crowns illustrate that. Clijsters did reach the 2004 Australian Open final, but was edged out in three sets by compatriot Justine Henin. She has also made the semi-finals in Melbourne on four other occasions.

Some sensed a tough test for Clijsters this year when the draw paired her with three-time major finalist Dinara Safina in the opening round. But things couldn't have turned out differently as Clijsters crushed Safina - who became the first former world number one in the Open era to suffer a 6-0, 6-0 defeat at a Slam. She might be regarded as one of the nicest people on tour - but Clijsters showed no mercy to Safina that night on Rod Laver Arena.

Against Carla Suarez-Navarro, Clijsters' classic strengths were again on show - the outstanding court coverage, those accurate returns and piercing ground-strokes. Things weren't quite as routine in round three against France's Alize Cornet. By her own admission, Clijsters was below-par with 41 unforced errors. The Belgian's usually reliable serve also spluttered six double faults. But despite that, she was still able to grind out a straight sets win.

It was a blip, safely negotiated. Surely that maiden Australian Open title will finally arrive on Saturday? Probably. But before you all rush to grab whatever value still remains to be had in backing the Belgian - consider these factors first:

Avoiding Complacency

Clijsters' error-strewn win over Cornet is a reminder that the job of winning the title is not yet even half done. It also illustrates how important it will be for Clijsters to maintain her drive and concentration. Let's consider some of the Belgian's rare losses since her return. A defeat to Patty Schnyder in Luxembourg in late 2009, her Melbourne thrashing last year at the hands of Nadia Petrova, even last week's Sydney final defeat to Li Na ([16.0] to win.) What links all of them is that they were unexpected. But I think Clijsters also lost them due to a lack of on-court focus.

Next up for Clijsters is the un-seeded Ekaterina Makarova who has already upset both Ana Ivanovic and Nadia Petrova so far. On the face of it, Clijsters is a huge favourite. Makarova will be making her debut in the fourth round of a Slam and will be tired after consecutive three-set thrillers. But the lefty is a dangerous shot-maker and will have little to lose as she meets Clijsters for the first time. As she is expected to win easily, this is also the sort of match where Clijsters could suffer the sort of concentration lapses she has in the past. But in a market where value is hard to find, I am still tempted by Clijsters to win in three sets.

Second Week Struggles

If she can dispatch Makarova, I can't see Clijsters having too much difficulty against either of her possible quarter final opponents. The un-seeded Peng Shuai (260.0 to win) did beat Clijsters in their only previous meeting - but that was five years ago and the last eight of a Slam would be an all-together tougher setting for the Chinese to do it again. Agnieszka Radwanska ([140.0] to win) does have plenty of experience in Grand Slam quarter finals but only recently back from injury, I doubt she has the power to trouble Clijsters.

Should she get there, the Belgian is then likely to encounter Vera Zvonareva (9.8 to win) in the last four, while one potential final opponent is Caroline Wozniacki.

Zvonareva might have been thrashed by Clijsters in last September's U.S. Open final - but the Russian beat her on the three other occasions they met in 2010, including at Wimbledon. She seems to have started 2011 in the same form that also saw her reach last season's Wimbledon showpiece. Zvonareva is just so solid and possesses similar strengths to Clijsters. For me, this match-up would present Clijsters' toughest test en route to the title.

If Clijsters meets Caroline Wozniacki (6.8 to win) in the final - she can draw on the fact she has never lost to the Dane and beat her in the final of the WTA Championships in October. Wozniacki is also under huge pressure to win in Melbourne and respond to continuing doubts over her status as a worthy world number one.

Clijsters' record in semi-finals and finals since her return is formidable. She hadn't lost in 13 matches at those stages of events before last week's Sydney defeat. If she can maintain her drive and focus throughout the second week and negotiate a way past Zvonareva - it is tough to see anything or anyone else stopping Clijsters winning the title next weekend.