Australian Open Tennis / Ben Caudell / 27 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Two semi-final places are up for grabs on Thursday morning and it may well be the outsiders who secure them, believes Ben Caudell.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) v Na Li (CHN)

There is very little reservation amongst the tennis fraternity about the credentials Na Li possesses coming into tonight's battle with world number one Caroline Wozniacki. The top Chinese player, ranked just outside the top 10, has always had a good affiliation with the Australian fans and nation where she has recorded some of her best tournament results.

Having reached last year's Australian Open semi-final losing in two tie-break sets to tournament winner Serena Williams, Na Li has started the 2011 season off with a bang and without a loss. Who would argue that the Sydney WTA Premier winner doesn't deserve to be the odds-on favourite in tonight's match priced at 1.74 in the match odds market?

Well, although Na Li is 10-0 in all matches and has won six of her last seven when priced as favourite, she also leads the head-to-head series over Wozniacki 2-1, which includes a fourth round 6-4 6-3 win in Melbourne last year over the Dane. However I can guarantee that the world's top ranked player will take the underdog option any day of the week and will fancy her chances of ending Na Li's incredible run of form.

There are many who still can't get their heads around the fact that the women's world number one is a Grand Slam virgin and the rankings system has been scrutinised plenty as a result of that. But let's instead focus on her achievements. The Danish sensation managed to reach eight WTA tour finals in 2010, wining six trophies; she is currently 9-1 in Grand Slams as well as having a slightly better surface rating then her opponent.

Furthermore, it is also important to point out that Wozniacki recently defeated Na Li in straight sets at the Hong Kong Tennis Classic in the run-up to this event, a match that won't have been statistically recorded because of its status as an exhibition event but was as competitive as any on tour I have seen so far this year.

My advice is to bet on this match In-Play; Na Li is known to mentally implode at times and the pressure may get too much for her knowing that she will become the first ever Chinese player to reach a Grand Slam final. The value is definitely with the young Dane...

Recommended Bets:

Back Caroline Wozniacki @ [2.34] to win match
Back Over 21.5 Games @ [1.82]

Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Roger Federer (SUI)

We are in for a real treat tonight as Roger Federer, seeded two, faces Novak Djokovic the third seed for the 20th time in their distinguished careers. Federer leads the head-to-head series 13-6 and has won their last three match-ups. However it was Djokovic who prevailed in their latest Grand Slam show-piece. Novak triumphed over Roger in a five set epic to reach the final of the US Open in August of last year. He has played the Swiss legend six times at Grand Slam level and has triumphed in two, his US Open win and also during the 2008 Australian Open where he dismantled the Swiss in three sets at the semi-final stage of the tournament, before defeating Jo Wilfried Tsonga in the final.

The Serb is riding high at the moment and in my opinion is playing as good as anyone of the remaining four players left in the men's singles draw. He had a tremendous end of 2010 reaching the US Open Final, and leading Serbia to the Davis Cup.

Djokovic has a prolific 10-0 record in all matches and has dropped just one set all tournament. He is arguably the best returner on tour, has a great defensive game and can mix this up with playing a formidable attacking style of play. Djokovic has been broken just three times in five matches and is more than capable of matching Federer from the back of the court using his deep and well placed 'groundies' to full affect.

An important stat to look out for when considering a winner , is the fact that whoever wins the first set generally wins the match. Only three matches from the 19 played between these two have been won when going a set down.

With both players playing at the top of their game I fancy tonight's match to be won in either four or five sets, therefore the value bet for me is a win for Djokovic at around [3.20] and for the total number of games to be over Betfair's line.

Recommended bet:

Back Novak Djokovic @ [3.2] to win match
Back Over 39.5 Games @ [2.0]