World Cup / Will Hamer / 06 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The World Cup winner is almost by invitation only, writes Will Hamer

Spain are slightly south of $6, which means you won’t be chewing too far into your potential profits by hedging on them.

While wading through the multitude of betting categories for the World Cup in South Africa, I almost got lost!

There's so many there and only so much money to go around in these unpredictable financial times, especially given that your hard-earned cash will be parked away until July.

But value is value, and even though it's a good six months until kick-off, there's one category that deserves some attention: first-time winner.

There are some things in life that come along rarely - Halley's Comet, a three-horse dead heat and a first-time World Cup winner. There have only been seven World Cup winners - Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, France and Argentina.

Of those, France was the last first-time winner in 1990 when the tournament was being held in France.

Before that, it was Argentina in 1978, when they also won as host.

And, as we're all reminded ad nauseum by our English friends, 1966 was the year they won at Wembley.

While it's not a great sample size, given there have only been 18 World Cups, it's clear that winning is for a select group and even then you'd want to be playing at home.

So what does this mean for punting?

The first-time winner market has 'No' at about 1.52. This stinks of value.

'What about Spain?' I hear you cry.

Yes, a formidable team and justifiably a favourite, but you could have flunked veggie maths at high school and still be able to find a way to hedge against such a result. Spain are slightly
south of $6, which means you won't be chewing too far into your potential profits by hedging on them.

Of course, there are other dangers, but they are all north of $16, so if anyone shows a bit of toe early, the cautious amongst us can always hedge a little more during the group stages.

And call me foolish, but despite the theory I've been espousing, South Africa has no chance, despite them hosting.

History shows that the World Cup winner is almost an invitation-only title.

Take the $1.52 and, while you are at it, lay the 'Yes' result.