Soccer / Michael Cox / 13 December 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

These matches are as often won in the manager's office, where he decides on team tactics, as they are on the pitch. Michael Cox tells us how he expects both sides to line-up and the best bets on offer.

The biggest game of the Premier League season. Manchester United and Arsenal are third and first respectively going into this round of fixtures, though United have a game in hand.

Sir Alex Ferguson's dilemma is whether to select the 4-4-2 shape he's preferred so far this campaign, or revert to the 4-5-1 system he's generally used against Arsenal in recent seasons.

Which forward would he leave out? Since the game last weekend against Blackpool was postponed, United's previous Premier League game was the 7-1 thrashing of Blackburn, where Dimitar Berbatov scored five goals, and Rooney also had a good game, moving deep and becoming involved in link-up play.

That game suggested the two were playing different roles to last season. In 2009/10, Berbatov tended to drop deep and Rooney was the penalty box predator, finishing on 26 league goals. In the Blackburn game, however, Berbatov was finishing off the moves whilst Rooney was playing in a much deeper-lying position, to the point where he attempted more passes that weekend than any other player in the division, a remarkable statistic for a forward.

Considering Arsenal's vulnerability to direct attacks and with Arsene Wenger's centre-back area looking uncomfortable in recent weeks, Ferguson may consider it wise to play both strikers, and risk being outnumbered in the centre of the pitch by Arsenal's three central mid-fielders. Playing Paul Scholes in a midfield two would be a slight risk - so far this season he's played deeper than Darren Fletcher, with the Scot playing as an energetic box-to-box midfielder. In that role Scholes was vulnerable to Arsenal counter-attacks in the previous meeting between the sides at the Emirates in January, to the point where Ferguson was forced to switch his midfield trio and play Scholes further forward, so he didn't have so much defensive responsibility.

Therefore, and considering Scholes has been struggling with an injury this week, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ferguson leave him out for this game, one in which having two mobile central mid-fielders will be important. Michael Carrick made a mistake for Valencia's goal in midweek, whereas Anderson scored to round off a good performance, so the Brazilian may get the nod here. Fletcher, meanwhile, has a habit of committing tactical fouls against Arsenal - something Wenger has complained about in the past - so around [3.8] for him to be shown a card is decent value. Another way to combat Arsenal's midfield three would be to play Park Ji-Sung (who usually starts against the Gunners) in a narrow left-sided role.

Arsene Wenger's main decision is in his central attacking midfield role. Cesc Fabregas only has a "small chance" of being fit, so it will probably be a choice between Tomas Rosicky, who has started the previous two Premier League games in that role, and Robin van Persie, who is fit again and has started the Carling Cup game against Wigan and the Champions League match versus Partizan Belgrade there. If United do go 4-4-2, van Persie will thrive on the space afforded to him between the lines, and therefore [11.0] for him to score first looks tempting - if he starts - especially given his tendency to take penalties and free-kicks.

Arsenal's man on form is Samir Nasri, and despite suggestions that he's well-suited to being used in the Fabregas role, he's been playing his best football when cutting in from the right flank. This will see an interesting battle between Nasri and fellow Frenchman Patrice Evra - which should be tasty after Evra's comments about Arsenal in midweek...and Nasri subsequent riposte. Evra is yet to pick up a booking so far this season, but Nasri's booking odds may be worth a look.

Recommended bets:

Darren Fletcher to be booked at [3.8]
Robin van Persie to score first at [11.0]