Serie A / Dave Farrar / 23 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Dave Farrar's tips come from two of the less fashionable matches of the weekend, as Palermo host Brescia and the superb Marek Hamsik returns for Napoli at Brescia.

Palermo v Brescia

You have to love the Palermo President Maurizio Zamparini. Not for him the skirting of issues, the tentativeness towards officialdom that so many show, but not many feel.

After his team's defeat by Cagliari last weekend, Zamparini said that the referees and linesmen involved in the decisions which went against the Rosanero in Sardinia should all be put in prison. Whatever the rights and wrongs of refereeing, it's now just four points from nine games for Palermo since Serie A resumed, and they must win against Brescia to regain their lost momentum.

This is a fixture which tends to produce goals, and with Fabrizio Miccoli returning from illness to lead the line, and with Javier Pastore and the brilliant Josip Ilicic to help him, Palermo will go on the attack right from the start. When they do that at home, they tend to be unstoppable.

Palermo's last three home games have all produced at least three goals, and over 2.5 Goals is priced at a reasonable [1.95] here. Given that Mario Beretta's Brescia have found goalscoring form since the resumption, scoring five times in three games, the Renzo Barbera looks set for a cracking game, even given the absence (yet again) of Brescia's Alessandro Diamanti through suspension.

The only thing which puts me off having a huge investment on the "overs" is the fact that the Saturday 5pm game can be a little tepid, and that kick off time often seems to have an effect on players, but it shouldn't matter as much in Palermo: the match will be well attended, and the compact stadium provides a big match atmosphere even when it's half full.

Three of Palermo's last four Serie A home games have finished 3-1, and I expect something similar here. It's also worth noting that Palermo's expansive counter attacking style means that their games can take a while to warm up and they are a team which scores a lot of second half goals as they kill teams off. One goal can lead to two or three, and In Play punters may want to wait twenty minutes before placing an "overs" bet, or even sit on their hands and wait until half time. Zamparini has had a week to fume in public, but we should see him smiling at around 7pm on Saturday night.

Recommendation Over 2.5 Goals in Palermo v Brescia @ [1.95]

3-1 Correct Score in Palermo v Brescia @ [16.0]

Bari v Napoli

If you're looking for an over 2.5 goals accumulator, then there are several games which look like being lively this weekend, and I wouldn't put you off Udinese v Inter at [1.92], and Roma v Cagliari at [1.9]. The second bet of the weekend, though, comes on Sunday afternoon at the picturesque San Nicola stadium in Bari. GiampieroVentura's team has won just twice at home all season, and has been beaten here by Lazio, Udinese, Parma, and last time out against Bologna.

Serie A's bottom club look in desperate trouble, and their depleted squad could be about to go into serious freefall. Napoli have gone against type this season and won five games away from home, and that improved form on the road has been the bedrock of their vastly improved season.

Napoli were poor at home last week against Fiorentina, but responded with a Coppa Italia win in midweek, and they'll travel across the south with some confidence. Bari are so stretched in forward areas that they're barely managing to create anything at the moment, and Napoli's highly rated forward line will be primed to get a lead, one which should be enough.

Marek Hamsik returns to the team after missing the Fiorentina game, and you always feel that his presence gives Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi an extra spark. Bari will be further hampered by playing a Cup game in Milan on Thursday night, and having two days fewer recovery time than the Neapolitans. Napoli may seem short enough at [2.12], but I think that's a value bet, and fully expect Serie A's third placed club to brush aside the bottom team, probably by a two goal margin.

Recommendation: Back Napoli to beat Bari @ [2.12]