Premiership / Dan Fitch / 28 July 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The transfer market is currently quieter than the housing market in recession hit Britain, but Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch thinks that James Milner holds the key to the summer spending.

It seems to me that the Premier League transfer market has failed to burst into life this summer, because it's members are locked in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican Stand-off.

This is basically because no one has got much money to throw around, except of course for Manchester City. So until they spend big on a player from another Premier League club, the league's cash flow is stuck at a trickle.

Luckily for all involved, it seems increasingly likely that James Milner will be on his way to City from Aston Villa - the Betfair market makes him [5.0] to stay - which should give the green light for the transfer merry-go-round to begin.

Unsurprisingly, Milner seems keen to be paid a ludicrous six-figure weekly wage in Manchester. To be fair to him, City are clearly a side that are going places. In contrast, no one is sure of what direction Villa are moving, though what does seem clear is that it will be a pretty slow and uneventful journey.

The stumbling block to the move seems to be the fee, with Villa holding out for a patently ridiculous £30m, while City seem unwilling to pay more than a patently ridiculous £26m.

With such inflated figures being bandied around, it seems likely that a deal will be struck sooner rather than later, which will allow Martin O'Neill to prise open the Villa vaults and strengthen his squad.

There's a good chance that Milner's sale will allow O'Neill to build a better squad than he had last season. After all, Villa have long been linked with a move for City's Stephen Ireland, who would cost no more than £12m. The difference in valuation between the two players might be vast, but I don't see a huge difference in their actual abilities.

Villa have also been linked to a host of Tottenham's fringe players, such as Robbie Keane, Jermaine Jenas and David Bentley. The sale of any of those players would give Harry Redknapp some further room to manoeuvre in the transfer market.

Two players that have been rumoured to be on Harry's radar all summer are City's Craig Bellamy and Micah Richards. If Roberto Mancini does get his hands on Milner and Mario Balotelli, then it's a fair bet that Bellamy at least, will be dispensed with.

So City's plundering of Milner may actually result in two of their biggest rivals for a Champions League spot, growing stronger. Milner is a good player, but not so good that he couldn't be adequately replaced. With the money that Villa are about to receive, they should be able to purchase two or three top players.

Spurs are in a position where they will only need to buy a couple of quality performers this summer. Bellamy might not be one of the biggest names at City, but he was clearly one of their best performers last season and would strengthen Tottenham's already impressive squad.

Manchester City are just [1.59] to finish in the top four next season, with Spurs at [4.1] and Villa at [9.8]. Considering that they are spending so much money, it may seem like a formality, but it does take time for a team to gel. If City don't get off to a good start, it would be very easy for morale to drop and Mancini to get the bullet.

No one can compete with Manchester City in terms of purchasing power, but pretty much all of their rivals have the edge on them when it comes to stability.