Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 08 April 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Andrew Atherley picks out some FA Cup semi-final scoring patterns and tells us why fans of Hull and Burnley have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of avoiding the drop.

FA Cup patterns become more set in the later rounds of the competition, and there are a couple of trends worth noting for this weekend's semi-finals.

Here's one pattern: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 - that's the string of results in the last four semi-finals contested by two teams from outside the established big four of English football. It's a small sample of results, but it might just be a sign of how careful teams become when they can sense what might be a once-in-a-career chance of reaching an FA Cup final.

That impression is backed up by results in all semi-finals involving a pair of non-big four teams since the mid-1990s - seven out of nine had under 2.5 goals (in fact, all of those seven had under 1.5 goals) and the only ones that went over 2.5 goals had a lower-league team on the losing side.

Sunday's Tottenham v Portsmouth semi-final will be a low-scoring affair if it conforms to the pattern, but that goes against market expectation. Under 2.5 goals is [2.36] to back and under 1.5 goals is [5.0]. Those unconvinced it will be a tough battle for Tottenham, the [1.32] match favourites, could opt for a Tottenham clean sheet at [1.97], as the successful team in such ties has managed a shutout in seven out of nine.

The strongest pattern in the FA Cup is that the winner comes from the big four - only once since 1995 has a big-four team not emerged triumphant and that was in 2008 when none of the big four reached the semis. When, as this year, there has been only one big-four team in the semis since 1995, that team has lifted the trophy every time, which points strongly to Chelsea as good value at odds-against.

The Blues are [2.08] to back in the Winner 2009/10 market ahead of Saturday's semi-final against Aston Villa and are strong favourites to go through to the final, at [1.24] to qualify and [1.58] in the match odds.

A few seasons ago, there would have been little hope of a major turnaround in the relegation picture at this late stage of the season, but the evidence of recent campaigns indicates the issue may not be as cut and dried as the market expects.

Portsmouth are all but gone and the Relegation 2009/10 market has Burnley at [1.08] and Hull at [1.99] odds-on to accompany them on the drop to the Championship. Next in the market are West Ham at [2.88] and then Wigan at [6.8].

Yet there have been some 'miracle' escapes in recent seasons and Saturday's two Premier League matches are likely to tell us more about the chances of another, with Hull at home to Burnley and West Ham hosting Sunderland. Hull will climb out of the drop zone if they win and West Ham don't, while a pair of home wins will put West Ham above Wigan into 16th place and Hull only a point behind Wigan.

Either of those scenarios would see a re-evaluation of the Relegation 2009/10 odds, and recent history shows it is not too late for a seemingly doomed team to escape the drop.
In the past five seasons, five teams with fewer than 30 points at this stage managed to escape. Portsmouth in 2005/06, West Ham in 2006/07 and both Fulham and Bolton in 2007/08 turned around significant deficits in the final five games, so there is still scope for some twists and turns, especially with more big games to come, including West Ham v Wigan on April 24 and Wigan v Hull the following weekend.