Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 23 December 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

As we enter the Festive season our resident stats guru Andrew Atherley has cobbled together twelve money-making trends for the New Year. They make up the perfect stocking filler for all Premier League punters on Betfair.

The promoted teams have been among the most entertaining teams, with all three in the top five for games with over 2.5 goals. Blackpool lead the way with 12 out of 16 (75%), while West Brom and Newcastle are close behind with 11 out of 17 (65%). The overall percentage is 68%.

Back over 2.5 goals in all games involving a promoted team

Another way to profit from the promoted teams is to take the in-play prices when they are leading at half-time. Between them, they have won seven out of eight from that position - an excellent return considering they continue to be underestimated in both the pre-match and in-play odds.

Back the promoted teams when they lead at half-time

Stoke have played only four home games against teams from the bottom half of the table, but they have won three and drawn one, which indicates that games in this category remain their main strength. Overall, since promotion, their win rate at home to bottom-half teams is 68%, with just one defeat in 22.

Back Stoke at home to bottom-half teams

Birmingham may not be the most exciting team to watch, but they are admirably resilient and since promotion their record at home to top-half teams is won three, drawn nine and lost one. Those stats offer the choice of backing Birmingham on the Asian handicap, backing the draw or laying the visitors.

Lay top-half visitors to Birmingham

For all their recent problems, backing Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at home should continue to represent value. They have shut out the opposition in 17 of Carlo Ancelotti's 27 home league games (63%) and the figure is slightly better against top-half teams, where the odds are likely to be higher.

Back Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at home to top-half teams

At the heart of West Ham's problems is a poor home record of just nine wins out of 28 since the start of last season. A key factor is that they keep few clean sheets and that often leads to plenty of goals, with 64% of their home games in that period having over 2.5 goals.

Back over 2.5 goals in West Ham home games

Carlos Tevez appears to have patched up his differences with Manchester City and, if he gets back to his usual whole-hearted self, he should continue to be the most potent scorer in the Premier League. He has scored in exactly half of the 32 league games he has started under Roberto Mancini.

Back Tevez to score when he starts for Manchester City

The short-term trend in Arsenal's home record is for much tighter games than usual, but last season they won by at least two goals in 11 out of 12 at home to teams outside the top eight. A return to that impressive statistic would be no surprise, with five of the current bottom nine still to visit the Emirates.

Back Arsenal at -1.5/-2.0 on the Asian handicap at home to teams outside the top eight

Rafael Van der Vaart appears set to return from a hamstring injury and that is good news for Tottenham and 'to score' backers. The Dutchman has been in flying form, especially at White Hart Lane, where he has scored in six of his eight starts in the Premier League and Champions League.

Back Van der Vaart to score in Tottenham home games in the Premier League and Champions League

Chelsea have missed Frank Lampard this season and his imminent return to the starting line-up should bring improvement, particularly on the goals front. Lampard has started 20 Premier League games in 2010 and has scored in half of those games, with Chelsea winning 15 of the 20.

Back Lampard to score when he starts for Chelsea

The importance of Frank Lampard being in the Chelsea starting line-up is also evident in their goals tallies on the road. Thirteen of the 19 away games he has started under Carlo Ancelotti have had over 2.5 goals.

Back over 2.5 goals when Lampard starts in away games for Chelsea

Arsenal's place at the top of the away standings, with five wins out of nine, could be misleading. Since the start of last season, they have won just three out of 14 away to top-half teams and their only victory in that category this season, at Manchester City, was heavily influenced by a sending-off.

Lay Arsenal away to top-half teams