Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 03 February 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

One of the great post-Christmas improvers this year are Fulham but that shouldn't really come as too much of a surprise given what we'd seen from them at the start of the season, offers Andrew Atherley.

'Hughes is a happy Cottager' was the unfortunately worded headline on one football website this week, hinting at something entirely different from the revelation that Fulham are a team on the up.

Mark Hughes's side had just put Tottenham to the sword in the FA Cup fourth round with a 4-0 victory at Craven Cottage to provide the best evidence yet that they could be one of the stronger finishers to the Premier League season.

Hughes certainly has reason to be happy after a run that has seen Fulham record four wins and a draw from their last seven matches against top-flight opposition, which has picked them up from their seemingly ominous 3-1 home defeat by West Ham on Boxing Day.

That sort of revival has looked on the cards for much of the season, in truth, because Fulham have long had the classic profile of an underrated team open to improvement. The main reason is that, although they have been languishing near the bottom of the table, they have been highly competitive against the bulk of the division.

Five of Fulham's eight defeats have been against top-five sides - against whom they have given up 17 of the 18 points available - and just three losses in the other 18 matches against the rest of the division indicates they are far from the worst side in the Premier League.

Teams that draw a lot of games - Fulham have finished level in 11 out of 24 - more often than not turn out to be improvers in the long run. Four of the six highest-drawing teams in the first half of last season finished the season much better than they started.

It may appear a blot on Hughes's record that he has become a draw specialist, with eight of his last 11 games in charge of Manchester City ending all-square, but it is not such a bad thing. In any case, and here's the rub, Fulham look to be shaking off the draw stigma.

The key has been goals: they have scored at least twice in their four recent wins against Premier League opponents, having managed to score more than once in just four of their 18 league games before that (for two wins and two draws). The return of proven Premier League striker Andy Johnson has been something of a catalyst for their improvement.

With their low defeat rate and 10 of their remaining 14 games being against teams outside the top five, there is a good chance Fulham will continue on the upward curve. The advice is to back them for a home win when they play sides outside the top five, starting tonight against Newcastle, as they have won four out of seven in that category when scoring.

On the road against the same type of opposition, where they have lost just two out of nine but drawn six, there are the options of backing them on the Asian handicap, backing the draw or laying the home side. The Asian handicap may just provide the best return and the first opportunity to back them is at Aston Villa on Saturday.


Transfer deadline day produced some mind-blowing figures at the top end, but there was not much action among the Premier League strugglers.

In particular, the net selling by West Ham and Wolves was a bad sign for their survival chances because, of the last eight teams that were in the relegation zone and spent less than £2m in January, only one stayed up.

West Ham, who are [1.69] to be relegated, and Wolves, at [1.67], look banker bets to go down.


Recommended bets

Fulham to beat Newcastle at [2.1]
(and other visiting teams from outside the top five)
Fulham at +0.5 on the Asian handicap v Aston Villa at [1.91]
(and on the Asian handicap away to other sides outside the top five)