Premiership / Andrew Clarke / 22 September 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Andy Clarke looks at the stats from previous seasons to show us how league standings after five matches give us a good indication of where we can expect certain teams to finish. Good news for Newcastle fans...

Managers often say that early in the season it's performances, not necessarily results, that matter most and that they don't even pay any attention to the league table until we're at least 10 games in. Well if they don't, they should, because it can tell us a lot even at this stage. Last season after five games Chelsea were top and Manchester United were second whereas at the other end of the Premier League Portsmouth were bottom and Hull City were one place above them and guess what positions those four clubs finished in? So far this term Chelsea are top whilst Arsenal are second. The Blues are practically everybody's favourite to retain their title, as a price of [1.89] to do just that reflects, but the Gunners look good at [2.56] for a top two finish. It's true that Arsene Wenger's side haven't finished as high as second since 2004/5 but they've made a good start, Cesc Fabregas is hitting form and the new boys have fitted in well.

West Ham got their first point of the season away at Stoke on Saturday but in the last three seasons the team bottom after five games has twice ended up there come May. Many would argue that the Hammers are too good to go down but that was the perceived wisdom in 2003 and down they went despite winning 42 points and boasting players such as David James, Glen Johnson, Joe Cole, Freddy Kanoute and Paolo Di Canio. Blackpool seem doomed at [1.57] but the Hammers at [2.28] to get relegated may be a wiser investment.

The make-up of the top four was the most predictable of all outcomes in recent times until Spurs managed to break the mould last season but Tottenham aren't heavily fancied to do so again. Manchester City at [1.76] and Liverpool, despite languishing in 16th currently, at [3.9] have both attracted more interest. Harry Redknapp's side are fifth on goal difference despite a disappointing start which has seen them draw 0-0 at home to rivals City in a game they should have comfortably won and lose 1-0 at White Hart Lane to Wigan. Redknapp's squad though is stronger than last season with Rafael Van der Vaart already proving an excellent acquisition and [4.2] to claim a top four spot again is hard to ignore.

Today's table should also tell us a lot about the make up of the final top six. Last season five of the teams in the top six after five games stayed there, in 2008/9 four did and in 2007/8 again four with the number of survivors in the latter two campaigns being down because Manchester United were slow starters. For a long time the identities of four of the top six were set in stone but, as discussed, that's no longer the case. The pack of competing clubs is larger and according to the stats so far fewer points will be needed to finish in the top six: Newcastle are currently sixth with seven points whereas in the preceding three seasons to occupy sixth after five matches teams needed nine. Given those factors Newcastle at [12.0] for a top six finish is worthy of consideration but if that's a bridge too far for you then how about Everton at [3.3]? David Moyes' side have started badly but their last three league finishes read eighth, fifth and fifth and the eighth last term was achieved without Mikel Arteta and Phil Jagielka who were out injured for the majority of the season. Both are fit now and all the Blues' other star players stayed at the club over the summer.

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Back-to-lay Newcastle for a top six finish at [12.0]
Back Everton to finish in the top six at [3.3]