Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 06 October 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Andrew Atherley tells us which unfashionable side is worth backing to keep a clean sheet when at home to bottom-half sides, and why Ashley Cole is a must bet to find the net when the Blues are at the Bridge.

Virtually every stat table in the Premier League is led by one of the elite teams, but it is always worth digging deeper to find the value and a good example is Blackburn in the clean sheets table.

Chelsea are top this season with five clean sheets in seven matches, which is no surprise given that either they or Manchester United perennially head this table.

Blackburn, by contrast, have managed only one shut-out in their opening seven games, but that gives a misleading impression and it is worth backing them to improve that figure, especially in matches at Ewood Park.

Sam Allardyce took charge of Blackburn in December 2008 and, in typical style, he has tried to build his team around a tough defence. The overall stats indicate he has had no more than limited success, with 22 clean sheets in 59 matches (37%), but the interesting figure is the high number of clean sheets at home to bottom-half teams.

In that category, Big Sam's Blackburn have achieved a remarkable 11 clean sheets in 17 matches (65%) - Chelsea, it is worth noting, have had nine clean sheets in 17 in the same period, which is an indication of the value to be had in backing Blackburn clean sheets.

It is also noteworthy that Blackburn's sole clean sheet this season came in their opening home game against Everton, the only team currently in the bottom half to have visited Ewood Park.

More good chances are coming up for Blackburn, with four of their six home games before Christmas pitting them against teams that are currently in the bottom half. The first of those is in their next match, against Sunderland at Ewood Park on October 18, and it is likely the market will underestimate Blackburn's chance of keeping a clean sheet once again.

The best time to look for big odds in scoring markets is when there is a high chance of goals and that usually means going for the less heralded players from Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal.

Last season those three teams accounted for just over half of the occasions on which a team scored four goals or more and this season five out of seven of such games have featured Chelsea or Arsenal. That means more players from those teams have the potential to get on the score-sheet - a factor that may not always be reflected fully in the odds.

A good example last season was Thomas Vermaelen, who had a significant scoring impact in his first season at Arsenal. The defender put many strikers to shame with seven Premier League goals, most of them at home when Arsenal were well on top (only one of the seven was the opening goal). All but one of Vermaelen's goals came when Arsenal scored three or more, which shows that a key factor is that he plays in a high-scoring team.

Vermaelen has found the net in four of his 18 home appearances for Arsenal, a 22 per cent strike-rate that equates to odds of [4.5] in the To Score market, and he is going to be a player to note in the scoring markets once he returns from injury.

For Chelsea, the left side of their attack has been a major feature under Carlo Ancelotti and, while Florent Malouda's threat is reflected in the scoring markets, the big-odds option is Ashley Cole.

The left-back scored four goals last season - all at home, all in high-scoring wins, but most notably of all three of the four came at home to bottom-half teams. Cole appeared in only eight matches in that category, giving him an incredible 50% strike-rate in the To Score market.

Recommended bets

Blackburn to keep a clean sheet v Sunderland (and in other home games against bottom-half teams up to Christmas)

Back Ashley Cole to score when Chelsea are at home to bottom-half teams.