Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 02 December 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Blackburn's 7-1 hammering at the hands of Manchester United may make them seem like cannon fodder for their next opponents but that couldn't be further from the truth, says Andrew Atherley.

The English Premier League is rightly famed for its competitiveness, capacity to surprise and changeability from one week to the next.

That is why it is dangerous to read too much into one result, with a case in point being Blackburn's 7-1 defeat at Old Trafford last weekend. Punters may be keen to avoid Rovers after that drubbing and look for a long-priced upset when Wolves visit Ewood Park on Saturday, but logic and history suggest Sam Allardyce's team will bounce back strongly.

For a start, of course, these two back-to-back matches for Blackburn are chalk and cheese. Going from an away game against the new league leaders to the home comfort of a visit from the second-bottom club is just about as different as it gets.

And there is compelling evidence from Premier League history that a heavy defeat one week is likely to lead to a much-improved performance the next. Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, there has been a healthy 57% win rate for teams that conceded six or more goals and then were at home in their next game.

Narrowing the stats to the type of match-up that Blackburn face against Wolves, the win rate is even more impressive - 68% for home teams coming off a pounding by six-plus goals and then taking on a team that goes on to finish in the bottom half of the table (as Wolves are surely destined to do).

Blackburn, in fact, faced exactly this scenario last season after they were hammered 6-2 at Arsenal. At Ewood Park in their next game, Blackburn bounced back with a 3-2 derby win over Burnley (who eventually finished 18th).

There are other notable examples that suggest even poor-quality teams will raise their game after the embarrassment of a heavy defeat. Derby managed only one win in 2007/08 on their way to the unwanted record of the lowest points total in Premier League history, but it came at home after they had lost 6-0 away in their previous game.

And last season, after Wigan had suffered the worst defeat of the campaign when going down 9-1 at Spurs, the Latics came straight back to beat Sunderland 1-0 at home the following week.

This season, four teams have been hit for six and have bounced back immediately. West Brom followed their opening 6-0 defeat at Chelsea with a 1-0 home win over Sunderland, Aston Villa lost 6-0 at Newcastle and then beat Everton 1-0 at home, while Wigan were beaten 6-0 at home by Chelsea and then went to Tottenham for a 1-0 win. Blackpool, 6-0 losers at Arsenal, were close to a home win over Fulham next time but were pegged back to 2-2 by an 87th-minute equaliser.

If Blackburn follow that pattern, they could be overpriced even at odds-on.

Nobody could say it hadn't been coming. Last weekend was the first in Premier League history on which every team scored, but that was just part of a longer-term shift towards more goals in top-flight matches.

For the third straight season, over 2.5 goals is in the majority at this stage, with 53% of matches having gone over that mark. That's only a little short of last season's record by this stage, which led to an end-of-season figure of 53% with over 2.5 goals - the first for six seasons to go over 50%.

While it doesn't always follow that two high-scoring teams will produce plenty of goals, it is notable that this weekend matches up six of the nine teams with 60%-plus figures for matches with over 2.5 goals, including the top two - Blackpool and Manchester United, who clash at Bloomfield Road.

Recommended bets

Blackburn to beat Wolves at [1.82]
Over 2.5 goals in Blackburn v Wolves at [1.92]
Over 2.5 goals in Blackpool v Manchester United at [1.52]
Over 2.5 goals in West Brom v Newcastle at [1.9]