African absentees will cost strugglers too
Premiership 
/ Andrew Atherley / 07 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market
The way Chelsea have been playing in recent weeks, you'd have thought the African Nations Cup had taken place in December. However, with the tournament getting under way this weekend, Andrew Atherley wonders how it will affect Premier League clubs.
"The evidence from the 2008 African Nations Cup, when Chelsea lost Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, John Obi Mikel and Salomon Kalou, is that the issue is likely to be overblown. In that period, Chelsea won three and drew two of their five Premier League games."
The impact of the African Nations Cup on certain teams - Chelsea, in particular - was a hot topic even before the Premier League season kicked off, and now comes the acid test of whether there will be a tangible effect.
The media have been talking up this issue for months, but for punters it is a difficult one to factor into the odds - whether as a backer or a layer - and measuring the effect is tricky too. If the African Nations Cup had been held in December, no doubt it would have been blamed for Chelsea's sudden dip in form - two wins in six league matches. Clearly, though, there were other reasons for that dip and so there could be if Chelsea's results are below par while players are away at the African Nations Cup.
The evidence from the 2008 African Nations Cup, when Chelsea lost Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, John Obi Mikel and Salomon Kalou, is that the issue is likely to be overblown. In that period, Chelsea won three and drew two of their five Premier League games (the draws were against two in-form teams, Liverpool and Portsmouth).
In fact, Chelsea had to do without Drogba for three months that winter and there was no discernible effect on their performance - in those three months, their points average was marginally below their average during the rest of that season.
Struggling teams are more likely to suffer from the loss of key players. In 2008, Reading's Ibrahima Sonko and Andre Bikey were called up for the African Nations Cup and in that period Reading lost all five Premier League games. Reading were 13th at the start of January, six points clear of the relegation places, but that dreadful run saw them slip into the drop zone and they never recovered.
Similar difficulties might befall Portsmouth, who, on top of all their other problems, have lost regulars Nwankwo Kanu, Nadir Belhadj, Aruna Dindane and Hassan Yebda. Hull (Seyi Olofinjana) and Burnley (Andre Bikey) have lost significant players too, so those three teams - rather than Chelsea and their ilk - are likely to be the ones whose results suffer most over the next month.
Those three teams head the Relegation 2009/10 market, with Portsmouth [1.41], Hull [1.57] and Burnley [2.2], and a bad January would see those odds shorten further. In particular, now could be the time to back Burnley to be relegated as they face up to the prospect of life without Owen Coyle.
If Owen Coyle has looked at Bolton's form, he will have noticed that the first priority for the incoming manager is to tighten up a defence that has still to keep a clean sheet this season. In the past 10 seasons, 19 teams have finished the season with six or fewer clean sheets and 11 of those have been relegated, so dramatic improvement at the back is probably vital to Bolton's prospects of survival.
At [4.2] to back in the Relegation 2009/10 market, Bolton may still represent some value, especially as any initial optimism over the change of manager could be lost in this week's away games at Arsenal and Sunderland.
The worst away teams are usually the ones with the poorest defences, so Bolton's current mid-table position in the away league looks unsustainable in the longer term. As well as Bolton, Burnley and Hull have not kept a clean sheet on the road and that pair are the worst away performers in the Premier League. Opposing Bolton, Burnley and Hull on the road still looks a sound policy.
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