Premiership / Andrew Atherley / 20 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Andrew Atherley highlights the latest Premier League trend he's discovered which we should follow to try and make a profit this weekend.

Home advantage may be hard to find on Saturday's eight-match Premier League programme, when five of the hosts are drawn from the worst eight teams in the home form standings.

The quintet are Aston Villa (ranked 13th on home form), Blackpool (14th), Newcastle (15th), Everton (17th) and Fulham (18th). All bar Everton, who host West Ham, are playing teams above them in the Premier League table, which indicates this may be one of the best weekends of the season to side with the away teams.

That home backers should be wary this weekend is evident in this season's stats. Of the six Premier League weekend programmes that have featured three or fewer home wins, five have been when at least three of this unreliable quintet have been among the hosts. And on those weekends, those teams have mustered just three home wins from 17 opportunities.

The stats improve a little, though not much, if we look at weekends when at least four of the five have been at home. That has occurred five times and on those weekends the quintet have won 10 out of 23. That is a break-even figure, but only just and thanks largely to a couple of big-priced wins.

A more accurate measure of the quintet's reliability as a betting medium is their low strike-rate at short odds. In 21 matches when they have been [2.1] or lower, only six have resulted in a home win.

And the overall home win rates for these teams show what a risky proposition they are. None can boast any better than a 38% win rate at home and the jeopardy factor is clear from the fact that they all perform much worse against the type of opposition they are facing on Saturday.

Fulham, for example, go into their match against Stoke (who are seven places higher) with a record of just one win from six home games against teams above them in the table. Newcastle and Villa, meanwhile, have had just one win apiece against top-half teams (from five and seven games respectively) and are up against two of the best sides in Tottenham and Manchester City.

Overall, the quintet have managed three wins out of 21 between them against the type of opposition they face this weekend and the stats say they should be opposed, both this weekend and for the rest of the season when they are [2.1] or lower. With 10 defeats for the quintet in those 21 games, there is a good chance of away wins at decent odds in Saturday's matches.

A backable opportunity could emerge for in-play punters on Sunday when West Brom visit Blackburn. The Baggies have the worst record in the Premier League at scoring the opening goal but have one of the best conversion rates, with four wins out of five. If only they had scored first more often, they would not have slipped back towards the relegation zone after their good start to the season.

If West Brom score first at Ewood Park, their backability will be enhanced by the fact that Blackburn have lost all nine games this season when conceding the first goal - the only team in the Premier League not to have taken even a single point from that position.

It is notable too that six of the nine games where Blackburn have conceded first have finished with over 2.5 goals, while four out of five have gone over that mark when West Brom have scored first. Both are above average for over 2.5 goals and this looks set up for a high-scoring game if the visitors notch the first goal.

Recommended bets

Back Sunderland v Blackpool at [2.76]
Lay Everton v West Ham at [1.59]
Back Stoke v Fulham at [3.7]
Back Tottenham v Newcastle at [2.38]
Back Manchester City v Aston Villa at [2.16]
Back West Brom if they score first
Back over 2.5 goals if West Brom score first