Premiership Betting: Free-falling Arsenal may even miss out on a Top 6 finish

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The betting on Betfair suggests the Big Four plus Everton and Villa have the Top 6 places in the Premiership sewn up but Robert Hughes isn't so sure that a Fabregas-less Arsenal are a shoo-in and makes a case for the likes of Hull and Fulham.

Although the Top 3 in the Premier League appear fairly secure, it is far from certain who will occupy the places immediately below them come the end of the season, which means that the 'Top 6' market still offers some interesting possibilities.

Arsenal and Villa appear to be in a straightforward fight for fourth place, but it's still possible that one of them could falter and maybe even drop out of the Top 6. Of the two, I'd say that Arsenal are the most likely to do so - already trailing Villa by three points and with Cesc Fabregas out for several months, they also still have to visit Anfield and Old Trafford. It's not impossible to imagine the Gunners falling away in the second half of the season, as they did last term.

Everton, who occupy sixth place and are three points behind Arsenal, have recovered from a shaky start and have lost only two of their last twelve games - they are currently [1.82] to finish in the Top 6. However, their current position might be as good as it gets for them - after taking on Hull this weekend, their next three fixtures are away at Liverpool, at home to Arsenal and away at Man Utd, a sequence of matches which could well see them slip down the table. If this happens, they may struggle to recover, particularly given the possibility of Mikel Arteta leaving in the transfer window.

Despite their league positions (13th and 16th respectively) the market currently has Man City at [7.0] and Tottenham at [8.2] to finish in the Top 6. Although City are thirteen points behind Everton, they do have an advantage over the other contenders in that they have the money to potentially transform their squad in the transfer window. However, the sort of world class players they would need to turn their season around do not usually move in the middle of the season, particularly to a club who are not in the Champions League. Any players they do bring in will probably help them move up several places and avoid any possibility of a relegation battle, but I can't see them being able to make up a 13-point deficit, so I would be wary of backing them in this market.

While Tottenham may to some degree still be recovering from their disastrous start under Juande Ramos, Harry Redknapp must take the responsibility for their recent form, which has seen them win only one of their last six league games. They may receive a boost if the signing of Jermain Defoe goes through, but, like with Man City, I don't believe that any new signings will make enough of an impact to see them finish in the Top 6 this season.

Far more likely to make a realistic challenge for a Top 6 place are the likes of Wigan, Hull and Fulham. Wigan, who can be backed at [11.0] in this market, are currently four points adrift of sixth place, but they do have a game in hand on those above them and are in excellent form, with five wins from their last six matches. However, they still have to travel to Man Utd, Chelsea, Villa and, perhaps decisively, Everton. They may also lose momentum if any key players such as Emile Heskey are sold in the transfer window.

Three consecutive defeats have somewhat taken the shine off Hull's superb start to the season, but they are still only five points off sixth place. They have a slightly easier run-in than those around them, with their most difficult fixtures looking like the trips to Stamford Bridge and Villa Park. With their excellent away record this season, they should approach these games with some confidence, and the [15.5] available for them here looks like decent value.

Fulham, currently in 9th place, have a game in hand over the teams around them, and are unbeaten in nine matches. They have been very strong at home this season, but they do still have to travel to Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea; they can be backed at [13.0] to finish in the Top 6.

So when looking at this market, while it's tempting to be drawn to the more glamorous clubs who have money to spend this January, I would try to avoid this, and instead focus on the presentl league position of the different teams, and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures.

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