La Liga / Tobias Gourlay / 26 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Unfortunately for Atletico, it looks to Tobias Gourlay to be another win for Real Madrid in the derby this weekend.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Real [1.22] Atletico [18.0] draw [7.8]

Long-term trends say they will lose.

Short-term stats say they will be thrashed.

These are the circumstances in which Atletico Madrid should sometimes be backed to win at long odds. When it comes to the city derby with Real, however, it usually pays to keep the form book by your side.

Atletico Madrid have not won at the Bernabeu since 1999. And it is not just that their statistical record in this fixture is bad (W0-D4-L5 since they returned to the Primera Division in 2002); it is the fashion in which they have conceded defeat and - worse - conceded victory that has so troubled everyone involved with the club. They have scored the game's opening goal in four of the last five seasons, but have always given up their lead.

With doubts around Radamel Falcao's participation and who will fill in for Silvio at right-back, a bet on Real is the only sensible course of action. Jose Mourinho's team are on a 12-match winning streak in all competitions and nine of those games have been won by three goals or more. Gregorio Manzano's Atletico are W0-D1-L4 on their travels this season and have already been beaten heavily by Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao.

Recommended Bet: Back Real Madrid -2.5 on the Asian Handicap @ [2.5]

Getafe v Barcelona
Getafe [18.0] Barcelona [1.22] draw [7.4]

Barcelona are W5-D6-L0 in recent away games (excluding the final few matches of last season, when the title was as good as won). Three of the five matches this season have finished 2-2, and Pep Guardiola's team also conceded two goals in Milan on Wednesday night in an intense game that will have tired those involved.

There's no reason to think they might be beaten by Getafe this weekend - discounting a meaningless game with Real Sociedad they haven't lost on the road in La Liga for more than 18 months - but is there a case for backing the draw at the Alfonso Perez?

Opta reports that this is Getafe's worst start to a season in La Liga. They have drawn half of their six home games this term, but it is much harder to see how they will trouble Barca than it was Marcelo Bielsa's Athletic Bilbao a couple of weeks ago.

If Lionel Messi is rested, however, a small bet on the draw will be tempting.

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ [7.4]

Athletic Bilbao v Granada
Sunday 18:45
Athletic [1.47] Granada [8.8] draw [4.6]

A fortnight ago, Athletic Bilbao got very close to ending Barcelona's long unbeaten run away from home (we're still not counting Sociedad's win at the butt end of last season). Only Messi saved the champions in injury time. A week ago, Marcelo Bielsa's team were applauded off the pitch by Sevilla's fans after winning 2-1 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. After some early-season confusion, vertical football is taking them in the right direction.

The Basques have heartily embraced Bielsa's daring approach to the game and are now 11 matches unbeaten. There have been more draws than wins so far (W5-D6-L0) but most of their opponents have been stronger than Granada, who have lost 4/5 away from home and failed to score in just as many.

Athletic are improving with every game. Fernando Amorebieta is back at centre-half and, if Javi Martinez is fit to take his place in midfield, Bielsa's boys will run away with Sunday's game.

Recommended Bet: Back Athletic -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ [2.3]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay