La Liga / Tobias Gourlay / 03 December 2009 / Leave a comment

In the aftermath of El Clasico, Tobias Gourlay has found lots to bet on. Hopefully the 13th round of La Liga will be lucky for him.

Recommended Bets: Back Real Mallorca at [1.9] to beat Real Zaragoza; back Sevilla -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at [2.0] to beat Real Valladolid; back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.98] in Athletic Bilbao v Valencia

In winning El Clasico last Sunday, Barcelona overtook Real Madrid at the top of La Liga. On Wednesday the Catalans played again - winning a match against Xerez that had been rescheduled to accommodate their participation in the upcoming World Club Championship - and moved further ahead of their great rivals.

Real Madrid should have little trouble reducing Barca's lead to two points by beating Almeria at home on Saturday afternoon, even if a groin injury keeps Kaka on the sidelines. The visitors are struggling without last season's top-scorer, Alvaro Negredo, whom they had borrowed from Real, and coach Hugo Sanchez, a Real hero who covets a job at the club with which he won five league titles as a player, will not want to upset his hosts.

Deportivo La Coruna versus Barcelona is a more interesting prospect for Saturday evening. The Riazor is in Galicia, where the weather is bad (the rest of Spain shelters behind it as it bears the full force of the Atlantic Ocean) and the people are thought to be weird. The reigning champions haven't won there since 2004/05, since when Depor's record at home to the Big Two is W5-D3-L0. It's perhaps not the time to lay Barca ([1.66]) - they did seem to have recaptured their treble-winning form against Inter and Real last week - but it is probably the place to do so.

Third-placed Sevilla were not expected to take only one point from last weekend's home game with Malaga. They suffered one defensive lapse and one piece of misfortune before fighting back from 2-0 down, but Manolo Jimenez's side must still make amends against Real Valladolid on Saturday. To raise a serious challenge to the Big Two, Jimenez need only eliminate the defensive lapses and persuade Alvaro Negredo to concentrate a bit harder in front of goal.

Valladolid can help him do this. They have big defensive problems - errors by three different defenders helped Tenerife come back from 3-0 down to claim a point last Sunday - and, no real surprise, they usually struggle on the road to top-six teams. They've lost 10 of the last 13 such matches, and the most recent nine defeats have all come by margins of two goals or more.

Now, Team A is playing at home to Team B. Team A has won all six of its home games so far. Team B has two draws and four defeats from its previous away matches. Would you take Team A at [1.9] to beat Team B?

This column would, and that's why it will be backing Real Mallorca (Team A) in their clash with Real Zaragoza (Team B, right?). It might even take the [3.1] available for Mallorca to be ahead at half-time and full-time, for that's a bet that would have paid out in 4/6 of the islanders' wins and all four of Zaragoza's defeats.

Want to know more about Mallorca? They were discussed here a couple of weeks ago. Suffice it so say this time that shiny new Borja Valero continues to flourish, scoring a cool penalty at Valencia to gain an undeserved point last weekend.

Athletic Bilbao have already had a season of three thirds - a perfect three-game start, then one point from 15, now 10 from a possible 12. Lord knows what shape they'll be in by June, but right now they can make trouble for Valencia, who have lost David Silva to injury and whose journeymen defenders have conceded in each of their last three matches (that Borja Valero clip includes Bruno's spectacularly clumsy foul that gives away the penalty).

For Athletic, Fernando Llorente has just scored his first Liga goal in two months, and their record of 13/20 matches with top-six teams at San Mames going Over 2.5 Goals suggests the value lies in a [1.98] price for a similar outcome on Sunday.