Champions league / Dave Farrar / 10 March 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

We never know which Roma is going to show up and that's what makes them so exciting, says Dave Farrar. If the likes of Totti and Aquilani can recover from injury, they have a real chance of progressing but the best bet is over 2.5 goals @ [2.3].

Rather like Manchester United, Arsenal should have put this tie out of Roma's reach in the first leg, with Niklas Bendtner and Emmanuel Eboue particularly guilty of bad misses. That game may well have come a bit too soon for the Gunners, as I was mightily impressed by the way that they finished their chances against Burnley on Sunday, and if Carlos Vela or Eduardo had been in similar positions to Bendtner or Eboue, then Arsene Wenger's team would surely have a three goal lead to take to the Olimpico.

As it stands, Roma will still feel that they have a major chance, and even though their Serie A form hasn't been quite as lustrous as it was at the turn of the year, you can be sure that they've been building up to this match ever since the final whistle went at the Emirates. They didn't turn up for that game, but that often happens with Roma, particularly away from home, and those who watch them regularly in Serie A know that there is massive room for improvement to come from them this week. If Inter Milan were exposed against Manchester United, then Roma are certainly potential improvers.

Daniele De Rossi will be missed from Roma's midfield, but how badly depends on whether David Pizarro and Alberto Aquilani recover from injury in time for the game. They would both be adequate replacements, and to lose De Rossi's indiscipline from midfield wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen to Roma.

Of far more concern is their ability to go forward and trouble Arsenal, with only Mirko Vucinic among their strikers to have scored in their last five games. I was staggered that he didn't start in North London, and he will definitely be on the pitch from the beginning at the Olimpico. And if Francesco Totti is also fit, then you may see Roma go for it right from the start, with either Baptista or Taddei completing the tridente.

As I've discussed before in this column, Roma can either be sparkling from the start of games, like they were against Inter two weeks ago, or they can be maddeningly stifling. Working out which Rome has turned up is often the key to predicting which way their games will go, which is why they're always best watched for ten minutes before you start betting on (or against) them.

My guess is that the carrot of a Champions League final at their own ground will be a major driving force, and that Spalletti will send his team out to attack from the start, knowing that this approach gives them their best chance of going through. The [3.25] about Roma to qualify is tempting, as it seems a little too big, but the same can be said of the [2.3] about there being over 2.5 goals in the game.

Arsenal look to have worked out how to score goals again, after four 0-0 draws in a row, and while Roma are obviously stronger than both West Brom and Burnley, their back line can be vulnerable, particularly if Juan doesn't make it back from injury in time. Arsene Wenger won't want a game which is too open, but he is fully aware of the value of an away goal at any stage, and won't discourage his team from looking for it.

Whichever team scores first, the other will have to respond, and that situation in the tie sets up the tantalising prospect of a really open game developing. There is a chance that Arsenal will come to keep it tight and hold on to yet another 0-0 draw, but sometimes you look at a price and think that it's wrong, and that is the case with the overs in this match. I think that over 3.5 goals at [4.2] would also be a sensible play, but in the craziest gambling week of the year, with the small matter of the Cheltenham Festival also going on, I'll stay conservative, and confidently predict that there'll be at least three.