Champions league / Dave Farrar / 10 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Many were surprised by Real's demise at the hands of Lyon in the first leg and the French outfit know that an away goal at the Bernabeu would really set the cat amongst the pigeons. Dave Farrar talks us through what might happen on the night.

Given Real Madrid's frightening form at the Santiago Bernabeu, it's awfully tempting to take the [1.6] about them qualifying against Lyon. Lyon thoroughly deserved their 1-0 first leg win, but it was interesting to see them going all out for a second goal.

Claude Puel and his team know that you need a significant advantage to hold on to if you're heading for a Wednesday night date at one of Europe's most imposing stadia. The problem with backing Real to go through is that a Lyon goal in Madrid throws the tie hugely in the French side's favour, and even though Real have won 13 out of 13 in La Liga here, they haven't always done so by the margin they'll need on Wednesday.

They've conceded in five of those wins, and both Deportivo and Sevilla (on Saturday night) were beaten 3-2, a scoreline that would take Lyon through. If Real do go all out from the first whistle, then they had better be careful. And Lyon are on a good run themselves.

Written off for the title at the turn of the year, they have remained unbeaten since, and have conceded only four goals in all competitions since the start of January. If anyone can keep Real quiet, it will be Puel's well drilled Lyon. I don't think that Puel will play for a 0-0. He's too aware of the significance of an away goal, and what he needs to do is strike a balance between trying to grab something at the other end, while making sure that his team isn't left overexposed. I think that this is a game largely for trading.

Over 2.5 goals are currently at [1.65], but Real can take a while to get going and tend to overwhelm teams in the second half of matches. I'll be trying to back the overs at near the [2.0] mark, and am confident that I will have a chance to at least trade a position.

Given the significance of an away goal, I'll also be backing Lyon to qualify should Real take the lead, as I expect them to. You always see massive overreactions in Champions League markets on nights like this, and the French team's price will almost certainly be too big if Real score. So those are the two angles that I'll be looking to exploit, but I appreciate that the job of this column is to tip something from the go. So I'll tentatively suggest that Lyon may be able to keep things quiet until half time, and that they're certainly overpriced to do so, and also that the Frenchmen can stay within range of Real and possibly do enough to put the Spanish giants out.

BEST BET: 0-0 HALF TIME CORRECT SCORE @ [4.0]

RECOMMENDATION: LYON + 1.5 Goals (Asian Handicap) @ [2.1]