Champions league / James Eastham / 30 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

This has become a grudge match during the past week, but there's still very little to choose between the two sides, suggests James Eastham.

When the draw was made for the Champions League quarter-finals, these two clubs were the best of friends - but any sense of fraternite hás all but disappeared during the past seven days.

A furious row has broken out between the clubs, which means the two sides will be under extra pressure when they meet at Stade de Gerland on Tuesday night.

The root of the argument was the French League's decision to schedule Lyon's league game against Grenoble this past weekend on Friday night. The idea was to give Lyon extra-time to prepare for this game, but when Bordeaux complained that Lyon had an unfair advantage - Bordeaux had to play Marseille in the Coupe de la Ligue final on Saturday night - the league backed down, telling Lyon to play on Saturday instead.

Lyon have the edge

Lyon president Jean-Michel Aulas reacted furiously. His two appeals against the decision failed, but all the anger he vented was not necessarily in vain, as he will doubtless have imbued his players with the sense of injustice that comes naturally to him. Lyon are at their best when they feel the rest of France is against them, so events may ultimately have worked in their favour.

On most counts, it's impossible to separate these two sides. Lyon - [2.24] to win on the night and [1.94] to qualify - were the great French side of the modern era (seven consecutive titles from 2002 to 2008) before ceding their crown to Bordeaux last May. Bordeaux - [3.85] to earn a surprise away win and [2.04] to qualify - are technically better and athletically superior but Lyon have greater European experience. The visitors have won seven straight games in the competition, but the hosts will have drawn confidence from eliminating Real Madrid in the last round.

Two factors tip the balance in Lyon's favour. The first is team news, because Bordeaux are without defensive organiser Marc Planus and holding midfielder Alou Diarra. Those two players are key men in Bordeaux's usual starting line-up. The away team's chances of keeping Lyon at bay for 90 minutes are smaller without their two most important defensive figures.

Drained visitors

The other factor counting against Bordeaux is physical and mental fatigue. Their Saturday clash against Marseille kicked-off nearly four hours later than Lyon's game on the same day, handing Lyon a potentially crucial advantage. Bordeaux's game was more draining, too, as it carried all the trappings you would normally expect of a final. And they lost 3-1, which will have knocked the players' confidence. Bordeaux will be far less fresh after journeying to Paris for the final and then heading to Lyon in the south-east of France.

By contrast, Lyon's 2-0 win over Ligue 1's bottom club Grenoble on Saturday afternoon was a stroll. They have been able to prepare for this game in the ideal manner, too - their last away game was 10 days ago so they've done all pre-match work at their own training ground without the hassle and fatigue of travelling.

Low-scoring encounter

Once the action starts, Lyon's priority will be keeping a clean sheet. Doing so in the last 16 first leg against Real Madrid (1-0) gave them an ideal platform for the second leg so they would happily settle for the same again. They will be confident of scoring in the return leg at Stade Chaban-Delmas, too, because Bordeaux have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 matches.

Lyon's desire to keep a clean sheet and the likelihood that Bordeaux will defend in numbers in order to compensate for Planus and Diarra's absence makes under 2.5 goals my main selection at [1.64]. In the match market, the draw is the outsider of three but actually looks the most likely outcome. So either back the stalemate at [3.3] or split your stakes across 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines at [8.8] and [6.8] respectively.

Bordeaux are noted for scoring from set-pieces but, without Planus and Diarra, their marking at the other end will be poorer than normal. They conceded a simple header from a corner against Marseille on Saturday and those sorts of situations may prove their undoing again. I recommend a a speculative punt on Cris in the anytime scorer market; because the Brazilian centre-half is outstanding in the air and will give you a good run for your money at [13.0]