Soccer / Dave Farrar / 15 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

There seems to be a belief that the Ivory Coast are nailed-on to make it through to the next round and that their draw with Burkina Faso was no more than a freak anomaly. But Dave Farrar isn't so sure...

It's been a typically odd Cup of Nations so far, and the best betting tactic in these early stages has been to lay the big names, and to back the outsider in the over/under 2.5 goals market. A combination of those two approaches would have netted a rich profit up until now. Two big names clash in Cabinda on Friday, and so the former tactic is out of the question, and after Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso drew their opening game, this group now looks fascinating. Togo's unfortunate withdrawal means that this is Ghana's first chance to show what they can do, whereas Ivory Coast will be fully aware that defeat here would leave them vulnerable to a draw of convenience in the Ghana against Burkina Faso game: a four team group being reduced to three can be a disadvantage in terms of the qualifying equation.

Ivory Coast had plenty of chances against the Burkinabe in their opening match, and their attacking style means that they'll try to create plenty against Ghana, but Ghana know that, even though a win would guarantee qualification, a draw puts them in pole position. I don't think that we'll see anything approaching a gung ho Ghana, and the fact that 5 out of their 6 matches in the second stage of World Cup qualifying featured under 2.5 goals means that the [1.77] about their being under 2.5 here is probably about right. If you've got into the habit of blindly backing the outsider in this market, then that's been profitable so far and don't let me stop you, but I can't advocate that kind of bet just for the sake of it.

One thing that I have noticed about Ivory Coast is their tendency to respond badly when put under pressure, and their lack of a Plan B when they don't score an early goal. In the five qualifying games which they won, they scored before half time and dominated from the start. In the one game that they didn't win, Malawi held them until the break, scored soon afterwards and ended up grabbing a draw. If you throw in their implosion both in the last Cup of Nations and indeed the 2006 World Cup (the only game they won was the one which didn't matter) then a theme is developing.

Ghana are strong and powerful and their first job will be to close down the Ivorians, their second to try and take advantage of panic at the other end of the field, and I think that the Black Stars are capable of doing that, certainly more capable than the prices suggest. Ivory Coast are being priced up as if their elimination is unthinkable, and yet, had Burkina Faso shown a little more adventure towards the end of the opening game, then they might have pulled off a Gabon style shock. Ghana will be far more willing to go forward, and their mixture of solid experience and exciting youth is unlikely to be intimidated by the big names on the opposition team sheet.

All of this means that Ghana are overpriced at [4.5] to win the game, although the more conservative among you may want to lay Ivory Coast at [2.0]. If Ghana do win, it's likely to be a low scoring game, and so I'll have a more speculative bet on a Correct Score as well, while the need to keep it tight means that there's a touch of value in the 0-0 half time scoreline at around [2.7]. Rather like France in the 2002 World Cup, there's a chance here that a hotly fancied free scoring team could be knocked out without scoring a goal. The prices suggest that it can't happen, and we should take advantage of the fact that it most certainly could.

Dave Farrar says: Beat GHANA to beat IVORY COAST at [4.5]

Recommended Bet: GHANA to win 1-0 @ [13.0]