Scott Ferguson Previews the Australian Open (Men's)
/ Lindsay Andrew / 13 January 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Once again a men's Grand Slam market is dominated by R.Nadal and R.Federer. Hardly surprising considering out of the last 28 major tournaments, only four other men have claimed a title (see if you can name them, answers at the bottom).
Roger Federer [2.98] is here to defend his crown and retain hold of the only Grand Slam title he currently holds - he hasn't been without one since June 2003. Rafael Nadal is a clear no.1 in the rankings because he holds the other three titles - victory here would give him the set all at once; not the true 'Grand Slam' which is within a calendar year, but a feat nobody has achieved since Rod Laver won the lot in 1969.
Federer has hit the ground running this season, winning the Doha event, a strong lead-up to Melbourne. With five Australian Open titles under his belt, he knows exactly what to do, but is age starting to get the better of him? He turns 30 this year, and it's rare that players win majors this late in their career. On the other hand, we are probably talking about the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) to whom normal rules do not apply!
Nadal is chasing his tenth major title and his third on hardcourt. Better management of his training regime in recent years enables him to play at his best on the toughest surface of them all, whereas a couple of years ago, one had to be concerned whether his knees would hold up to the strain. Any signs of the virus he had in Doha should be gone by Monday, if not, the first week shouldn't really strain him anyway.
Formality says we must look at some more of their rivals, but one wonders if it is really necessary.
Andy Murray [9.4] now has doubts in his mind about whether he can ever win a big one. He did everything right last year until the final where the huge divide between he and Federer was demonstrated. His ranking has dropped to no.5 which means it's heads he lands in a quarter with either Federer or Nadal, tails he cops Djokovic or Soderling.
Novak Djokovic [12] hasn't looked like winning another title since 2007. He reaches the final four regularly but struggles to beat the Dynamic Duo over five sets.
Robin Soderling [19.5] has an awful record here - never past R2, but there's no reason why he shouldn't be challenging for the title. His game is solid enough on all surfaces, although the high bounce of Plexicushion may be the one negative against him. Last year he arrived suffering from tennis elbow, this year he arrives having won the Brisbane title without dropping a set.
The only other male players in double figures are Andy Roddick [70] - reported to have had a great off-season and has reached the semis in every 'odd' year here since 2003; Nikolay Davydenko [85] - beat a sick Nadal in Doha, never past quarters here but can beat top pair on hardcourt; and Tomas Berdych [85] made the final at Wimbledon and semi at Roland Garros, but hasn't been past the fourth round in Melbourne or New York.
Flying the patriotic flag will be Lleyton Hewitt - surely someone's having a laugh at [160]. He has reached three quarter-finals at the majors since 2006, not one of them here. He's now ranked outside the top 50 for a reason. Bernard Tomic scored the last available wildcard this week but his time is still to come. The boy is still growing and that's not helpful when you want to hit the ball in exactly the same spot all day, every day. With the crowd behind him though, he can pull out a shock win or two.
For a bolter worth trading, you could do worse than Latvian Ernests Gulbis [330]. Providing he does something about his woolly hair blowing into his eyes if it's as blustery as last year, this guy has the ability to go a long way. He's ranked 24 yet did not win a match at a Grand Slam all year. Getting into the second week of at least two events this year would put him on the verge of the top 10.
The draw will be all-important for betting opportunities at this event, stay tuned for further articles from me throughout the fortnight.
ANSWERS: Gaston Gaudio, Marat Safin, Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro.
*Odds taken at 9am 13/01/2011


