World Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 25 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Samoa are strong favourites to win this match but for Fiji this is the game that means the most to them at this World Cup. with this in mind, Geoffrey Riddle wonders if they keep a Samoan win to a respectable margin.

Samoa:

Samoa have scored the first try of the match in both matches at the World Cup so far. They touched down first when they beat Australia in July, also.
Samoa have covered the main handicap line twice in the last five matches where they were considered favourites at the World Cup.

Fiji:

Fiji fielded an under-strength line-up against Namibia. They took to the field without two of their most experienced players, Sisa Koyamaibole and Nicky Little.

Fiji have scored tries in 19 of their 24 matches since the last tournament. Before losing 49-3 to South Africa, they had scored in all of the past nine matches.

Fiji have rewarded handicap backers on the main line ten times in their last 15 matches at the Rugby World Cup.

Key quote:

"I can't be more confident than this, otherwise I'll have to put the boots on and run out myself. This is it. These are the guys who will take Fiji forward." Fiji coach Samu Domoni.

Match stats:

Domoni has made five changes to the side that was beaten 49-3 by South Africa. Fly-half Nicky Little is the only change in the backs, while Netani Edward Talei, Mala Ravulo and Sisa Koyamaibole all come in up front. Seko Kalou replaces Wame Lewaravu at lock and Akapusi Qera is dropped to the bench.

Only a third of matches between these two teams this century have seen more points in the first half than in the second half.

What you might not have known:

The clash is a sellout in Auckland, which houses the largest Polynesian population in the world
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Preview:

Of the last 22 matches between the two teams, Samoa have won by more than 12.5 points only five times going back 16 years. Admittedly, this Fiji team is not as great as some of those past, but they managed to salvage a draw against Wales in November and this is their big game of the tournament.

Samoa reveled in their underdog status in the summer to defeat Australia and with the starting XV named by Titimaea Tafua, they are capable of raising their game and defeating most teams in world rugby.

This is a going to be a scrap, however, and although they should win, they are not value to win by as much as the handicappers might have you believe.

Recommended investment (1-5pt staking plan)

1pt Lay Samoa to win by more than [12.5] points in the winning margin market