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Horse Betting: Baluch to make strong run in straight at Seymour

...stepping up to the mile Baluch looks good enough to go one better this time around despite the older opposition.

Peter Moody should enjoy the 96km trip to Seymour today where Timeform's Gary Crispe believes his three-year-old filly Baluch will also hopefully enjoy the trip over a mile.

Baluch is the only representative of Moody's powerful Melbourne stable, and the Hard Spun filly looks nicely placed to hand connections a maiden win, and punters a handy pay day.

Baluch pairs up with jockey Jason Benbow for the first time today carrying just 54kg following a narrow second-placing resuming at Echuca 15 days ago against her own age.

That run was just shy of nine months after her debut effort - a well-beaten eighth in open two-year-old grade at Caulfield.

Moody spelled her immediately after that effort, giving her more time to mature, and it proved the right decision first-up.

She carried 56kg at Echuca, and despite starting slowly, pulled clear at the furlong marker, worn down in the final 50m.

The winner of that race, Written Off, ran fifth in open three-year-old grade at Morphettville on Saturday.

Baluch should enjoy a comfortable run in transit this afternoon from gate five. There's a little bit of speed on and if she sits a few lengths off the leaders she'll be poised to make a strong run for home in the straight.

Moody will no doubt present her in terrific order second-up, and stepping up to the mile Baluch looks good enough to go one better this time around despite the older opposition.

Her biggest danger looks to be another three-year-old - Mick Price gelding Harveys True Heart, which reunites with Craig Newitt in this.

He's placed in both career starts, most recently in the same race as Baluch at Echuca where he closed late to grab third.

He was only a nose off Baluch that day, and the pair meets on similar terms today with Harverys True Heart again carrying 2kg more than Moody's filly.

His issue however, is barrier 16, which could prove a very tricky obstacle to overcome given the early speed in this one. He settled midfield under Newitt on debut before running on for second, but might get stuck very wide if he does that again.

With some luck though he looks a major player today, especially up to the mile. Both his runs have yielded Timeform ratings of 66.

Emperor's Folly looks third in line today after his gutsy second at Werribee 12 days ago.

Champion jockey Glen Boss jumps in the saddle today and will likely be pushing forward from the slightly awkward gate 12.

That's how he was ridden last start over this trip, and he stayed in the lead until 50m from home where his game stand was fractured.

It was the first time he'd been ridden to the lead, and the first time he'd finished in the minor placings in a run that netted a Timeform figure of 70.

He's definitely worth keeping safe, but must carry 58.5kg.

Of the rest today, Countthepineapples and Soldier's March are potential inclusions in multiples.

Gary's Best 1.2.3 Betfair Bets
(1) Baluch
(2) Harveys True Heart
(3) Emperor's Folly

Author

04 September 2012

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