Politics / Mike Robb / 27 October 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Politics guru Mike Robb selects six states where the betting is of particular interest ahead of the US midterms.

The big question about next week's midterm elections in the United States is not if the Democrats are going to lose key races, but how many and by how much. This is great news for punters as there are a lot of races that would normally be dead certs for the Democrats, and therefore not betting opportunities, that are now very much in play.

Thirty-seven of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs on November 2. Here are some of the key contests to keep an eye on.

Nevada
In arguably the most high-profile race of the lot, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid faces a tough task against Republican Sharron Angle.

Although the market has little money in it at the moment, looking at what has traded gives some indication of early sentiment. The Democrats have hit a low of [1.6] while the Republicans only reached [2.0], and those odds echo how commentators view this contest: the Democrats should win but it will be extremely tight. The latest polls reflect that, giving Angle a 0.7% lead in a virtual dead heat.

This is such a close contest that you could back either party solely based on the odds. The shrewd amongst you will no doubt wait for polls at the weekend and back whichever candidate comes out behind, a sensible move that would be too. Consider anything over [2.5] and look to trade out on the night.

Illinois
President Obama's old Senate seat would be a highly symbolic loss for the Democrats. Obama won Illinois in 2008 with 62% of the vote and the fact this state is in question is a prime example of the nationwide displeasure at his performance in the two years since.

The latest poll on October 20 put Republican Mark Kirk 2% ahead, so on that basis this is another near dictionary definition of a toss-up. The key to this race is whether or not the Democrats can get their supporters out to vote. If those who voted for Obama in 2008 decide they are disillusioned enough to not bother with the trip to the polling station, the Democrats will lose.

My view is that they will get that vote out, as the party machine in Illinois is well established. Look to bet on value - the Democrats at [2.3] or above would be worth a punt.

Wisconsin
This is another state that ordinarily wouldn't be in play. Incumbent Russ Feingold has held the seat since 1992, yet challenger Ron Johnson has maintained a poll lead since the end of July and now finds himself with a reported six-point margin.

It is important to remember that Feingold is a household name and has raised nearly three times that of his opponent, so the TV ads will no doubt be flooding the airwaves in this final week. It is also worth noting that Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee in every election since 1984.

The Democrats are currently [2.1] in the Betfair market. Take that price if you can get it.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter defected to the Democrats in 2009, having been the Republican Senator for this seat since 1980. His decision to defect has likely ended his long Senate career, with Joe Sestak beating him in the Democratic primary earlier in the year.

He faces a tough test against Pat Tooney, a former Congressman who ran against Specter in the 2004 Republican primary but lost out on that occasion. Recent polling figures are mixed, with three of the five released since October 19 putting Tooney narrowly ahead and two siding with Sestak, so it really is anyone's call.

The Republicans are the better bet here and anything around [1.8] should tempt. If the Democrats hit a high price (at least [3.5]) before Election Day, it would be worth a back and look to play the market on the night.

Washington
Democrat Patty Murray has held this seat since 1992 and stands a very good chance of holding it this year. Every poll in October has put her in the lead, even though it has narrowed from an eight-point margin earlier in the month down to a single point now.

Despite that, Republican Dino Rossi is as short as [1.83] to win and those odds seem far too short against a well-recognised incumbent who has maintained such a steady poll lead. Lay at that price.

California
On the face of it, this is a Democrat win every day of the week and you might think it will be no different this time. Whatever the outcome, California is always worth watching as it has consistently been one of the most traded state markets at every election since Betfair launched in 2000.

Democrat Barbara Boxer is given a 2-3 point lead in the latest polls, still very much within the margin of error, and faces a high-profile opponent in Carley Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett Packard. Despite all that, she is a ludicrously low [1.06] to win a fourth term.

That's a mad price and laying Boxer at anything below [1.3] would be a good move here. It will be close and you should have the opportunity to trade out later on, or even secure a big win if she loses. Far stranger things have happened.