Politics / Editor / 28 October 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Betfair markets indicate that past Republican strongholds are on the verge of switching allegiance. Is any state 'safe' for John McCain anymore?

With nine days left to run in the U.S. Presidential race, traders on Betfair are indicating that Barack Obama is set to claim victory in states which have for years been widely regarded as key Republican heartlands.

The Betfair markets are showing that in 'Red States' such as North Carolina and Indiana, the Democrats are now favourites to win. Obama has also closed the gap significantly in North Dakota and Georgia over the last month, with his chances of success rising by 32% and 35% respectively.

The Democrat has enjoyed a tremendous surge in favour on Betfair in all of the key swing states. At the start of October the Republicans were enjoying a slender lead in Ohio, Missouri and Florida. However, as of today that sentiment has been totally eroded with these markets now displaying high levels of confidence in a Democratic triumph.

For many weeks the signs have all been pointing towards a resounding Obama win and the real interest is now in the margin of victory. For a Democrat to be in with a chance winning in the likes of Georgia and North Dakota is quite remarkable, and the Betfair markets are showing a 65% chance that Obama will claim more than 351 Electoral College votes overall.

It means very few states can still be considered safe for the Republicans and Betfair customers are now predicting John McCain will be embarrassed when 'America Decides' next week.

FLORIDA

Voted Republican in six of the last seven Presidential Elections.

With 27 Electoral College votes up for grabs this state is and has always been pivotal, something that looks set to continue this year.

Chances of Democratic success were 29% mid September - they're now 69%.

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INDIANA

Indiana has voted Democrat on only one occasion since 1948 but Obama now leads here according to the Betfair market.

Republicans were given a 70% chance of winning by Betfair Punters only a month ago, how things have changed.

This state is going to be one to watch closely as election day nears and should give a good indication of the margin of Obama's victory nation-wide.

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GEORGIA

Voted Republican on the last three occasions and is a red state to the core.

The chances of A Democratic victory have risen from 15% to 43% in the last month and although John McCain still has a healthy lead here it would not be surprising if that narrows as election day nears.

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MISSOURI

Swing State has voted Republican since 2000 and only voted for the eventual loser once since 1904. They voted in a Democratic Senator in 2006 and look set to plump for Obama this year.

The two parties were neck and neck two weeks ago, since then the market is showing the Democrats as clear favourites with a 60% chance of victory.

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OHIO

Voted Republican on the last two occasions but is historically known as very much a Swing State. With 20 Electoral College votes on offer it is a key state for both camps.

Betfair Punters are giving the Democrats a 76% chance of winning although the market has swung twice since August.

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NORTH CAROLINA

A real Republican stronghold, the State has voted Red on nine of the last 10 occasions. Republicans held a convincing lead until the middle of September when the Democratic surge in the State began.

Today, Senator Obama is in the lead on the Betfair market with a 62% chance of winning.

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NORTH DAKOTA

Has voted Democrat only once in the last 60 years, this is a Republican stronghold.

The prospect of such a Red State voting for Obama is symbolic if not important overall - the three Electoral College votes on offer here are unlikely to have much of an impact either way.

An Obama victory here would be astounding. A month ago the markets were giving them only a 5% chance of winning, but today they are trading at prices indicating a 62% chance of success.

Chick here to get the chart at Betfair Predicts

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