Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 April 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The polls don't look good for Labour but the fight is not over for Brown and co. Here are three reasons why Labour may still pull off a shock.

On the day that Gordon Brown called the General Election, his party's fortunes appear to have taken a significant turn for the worse. It's been a bad week for Labour, with Brown's core brand of economic competence shaken by a campaign from some business leaders against a planned rise in national insurance.

While such a reaction to a tax rise from a largely pro-Tory segment of the population may not be much of a surprise politically, it seems to have hurt Labour in the polls. Their share topped 30% in only two of the six taken over the last week, five of which showed a Tory lead of 9% or more.

So is it all over? Certainly, it has become very hard to envisage Labour winning the most seats, as illustrated by the Conservatives' [1.18] odds in that market. Historical precedent suggests the poll gap is just too wide at this late stage. Last time in 2005, every prediction by the ICM/Guardian poll throughout the final month was within 2% of the final result. Looking further back, during the five election campaigns covered by this poll's timeline, only 1992 saw dramatic changes at his late stage, and in that case inaccuracies may have since been remedied by changes in methodology.

Nevertheless, while the picture looks bleak for them, Labour do have a few remaining straws to clutch at. Here are three that spring to mind.

1) The volatile mood of the electorate

Comparing current polls with the relatively serene era of the late nineties and early noughties can only be of so much use. That entire period saw strong economic growth, and pretty stable polls, whereas since the financial crisis begun in 2007, the British electorate seems to have become much less predictable.

ICM's polls since 2007 range between showing a Labour lead of six points and a Tory lead of 20. So many turnarounds in such a short space of time are almost unheard of in British politics, and probably reflect the electorate's widespread scepticism of all politicians. Even if David Cameron has modelled his route to power on that of Tony Blair, the public mood is nothing like 1997.

2) Tory plans have yet to be properly scrutinised

Another unique aspect about the current campaign is how little scrutiny has been placed on the opposition agenda. Previously, parties tended to lay out a detailed, costed policy plan much earlier in the electoral cycle. Indeed, the dissemination of such plans may have contributed to recent Tory failures, as Labour successfully ridiculed the numbers while often copying the more popular policies.

Cameron was determined to avoid the same fate, and was prepared to be labelled as a policy lightweight in exchange for changing the terms of the debate. So far, the strategy has worked, turning the main narrative into a referendum on Labour, but there is still great risk ahead. Within days, the Tories will have to lay out their own, costed manifesto and the media reaction could prove critical. When previously scrutinised on heavyweight political shows, Tory policies from tax cuts to schools reform have looked confused to say the least.

3) Hope for a game-changing mistake or issue

At least in so far as whether the Tories gain an overall majority, the result clearly remains uncertain. With much of the electorate either undecided, or a recent switcher, one mistake could still transform the election. Any slip in the leaders' debates will be magnified, though the scripted nature of those debates makes this a long shot. Nevertheless, as Cameron's amateurish performance in this recent interview with the Gay Times illustrated, pressure can un-nerve even the most composed performers.

More plausible is that a particular key issue swings the electorate back towards Labour, such as the economy. Most obviously, good news on the economic front could go some way towards vindicating Brown and Darling's stewardship. Cynics would argue that engineering such timely good news is well within the power of government.

In short, while the Tory lead is again looking unassailable, there remain cracks for Labour to exploit and narrow the deficit. In topical racing terms, they've cleared The Chair, yet still have several fences and a gruelling run-in to negotiate.