Politics / Editor / 06 November 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Punting on politics can be like interest in the bank but the latest opinion polls suggest it's worth holding off for a little while longer before unloading on the Australian federal election.

Rudd's Shocking Melbourne Cup Day
Since sweeping Labor to office in November 2007, the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been virtually unassailable in opinion polls. He's enjoyed an extended honeymoon, with personal popularity levels well into the 70 per cent range for much of his time in office.

Rudd saw off his first opponent Brendan Nelson after a year in office and Nelson's successor, Malcolm Turnbull has now had a very long year learning to adjust to life in the shadow of an enormously popular Prime Minister. Turnbull's poll ratings have been at dangerously low levels for most of his time in the job. His popularity as preferred PM is currently at around 19 per cent. But after two years in office, Rudd is now showing the first signs that he's no longer invincible. His poll status as preferred Prime Minister has slipped to 63 per cent, which in many ways is understandable given that his previous numbers were artificially high.

But things can change very quickly in politics. The former Victorian Liberal Premier Jeff Kennett could never have foreseen his dramatic defeat at the hands of Steve Bracks in 1999 and the former WA Premier Alan Carpenter paid a severe price for calling an ill-advised early election in 2008.

The most recent Newspoll by The Australian newspaper on Melbourne Cup day has federal Labor and the Coalition now level pegging in the polls at 41 per cent of the primary vote. Labor is down no less than seven points in the space of two weeks, and the Coalition is up by the same margin. On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor is ahead by only 52 per cent to 48 per cent, down from a buffer of 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

Pollsters say there's no reason to doubt that this poll is a genuine reflection of voter sentiment in the electorate and that the Federal Opposition has reason to be buoyed by the latest numbers.   

For his part, Rudd is refusing to concede that the slide in support will change the way he goes about the job. He says he'll continue to be tough on so-called people-smugglers but that he'll continue a humane approach to asylum-seekers, even if his actions translate into bad poll results.

There's no doubt that Rudd will be watching the polls carefully as the issue of asylum seekers again hits the headlines across Australia and internationally. His predecessor John Howard was very effective at driving a wedge through the parties on certain issues when it suited him in the polls.

There isn't much liquidity in the federal election maket on the Betfair exchange, which could be a sign that punters are holding off until closer to the election. But the odds with most bookmakers have Labor at around the 1.24 mark and the Coalition at 3.90. While it's difficult to foresee a turnaround dramatic enough to have Labor booted out of office, that price for a Labor victory still doesn't represent value for punters.

But should things become smoother on the policy front, a wager on Labor at the short odds will be better than interest in the bank.