Politics / Editor / 01 December 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

With the dust settling on a tumultuous month of sex scandal and leadership turmoil Frank Duval tries to sniff out the value.

The explosive last few weeks of political action has left us with four favourites within a remarkably similar price band.

In federal politics, Kevin Rudd is a $1.21 favourite on Betfair to win the next election. In Victoria, Premier John Brumby's ALP government is a $1.22 chance on Sportingbet, while in South Australian the Mike Rann led Labor Party is a little shorter at $1.20. Finally, in NSW, Barry O'Farrell's Liberal Opposition is a $1.22 chance to seize power.

First cab off the rank is likely to be South Australia in March and it looks like Rann is a fair price. He's got a healthy majority and an Opposition that's struggling to find it's feet. The barmaid sex scandal hasn't put punters off his chances, and really, nor should it.

It's the word of a respected leader versus an adulterous (by her own admission) bar worker who's been paid for her story. However, Rann's handling of it hasn't been great and, for us, that's introduced enough doubt to pass on this one. Plus, the alternative leadership options for Labor are poor if Rann were to fall under the proverbial bus.

Victoria is due to go to the polls in November next year, and we regard that as too long to wait for our cash at $1.22 for this particular bet. Brumby is certainly in a strong position, but he's electorally untested in his current role and the ALP has had a softish primary vote in recent surveys that's been propped up after preferences by a high Green vote.

In NSW, O'Farrell should be a monty, but the election's not until 2011 and we have no respect for the Liberal leader's approach. In our view, when you oppose privatisation of state assets (electricity) and the publication of school test results as a conservative, then that makes you so lightweigh you may drift away on the breeze.

Still, we are not mad on the ALP's chances at $4 plus, despite Nathan Rees flexing his muscles and punting some factional players.

So that leaves us with the Rudd Government - and we have concluded the $1.22 is good value for the punter with a decent sized account balance. Rudd's played down an early poll, but the election could well still be March with the expected failure of the ETS to pass. If not, you are probably looking at next spring for a poll. Your money is tied up for up to a year, but Rudd looks a moral.

As we write, Malcolm Turnbull is looking like he'll be carried out in a pine box, leaving Joe Hockey to try to convince voters he's not neo-con Nick Minchin's hand puppet and how his previous comments in support of emissions trading weren't really an endorsement of the policy.

Good luck with that Joe, especially as Turnbull has given Gillard and company all they need to slice and dice Hockey if he assumes the leadership.