Greens to win a seat @ [1.82]
Politics 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 05 May 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market
This constituency has a large gay population - one section of the electorate that shows no sign of buying into the Cameron spin about his newly tolerant party.
Paul Krishnamurty tells us why there's a very good chance that the Green Party will win a seat at this year's election and, surprise surprise, it's most likely to come in the most radical part of the country...Brighton.
With the political class discredited by various expenses and lobbying scandals, it was widely predicted that this election would be the best ever for smaller parties. As it turned out, the introduction of televised leaders' debates has probably saved the status quo, as discussion about the three leaders has ended up dominating the narrative. It seems unlikely that we'll see more than a handful of English MPs from outside the three main parties now.
One significant exception is the Green Party, who fancy their chances of a breakthrough. They are competitive in Norwich, and also in parts of Manchester, but Brighton remains by far their best hope. The Greens are very strong at council level in this most radical part of Britain, attracting many an ex-Labour voter in the process. Their impressive, articulate leader Caroline Lucas has been targetting this seat ever since they scored over 20% in 2005 to challenge the Tories for second. As the odds are roughly the same as for this individual constituency, I recommend taking the [1.82] about the Greens winning any seat.
As Labour support in the South has disintegrated, Brighton Pavillion has moved steadily up the Tory target list. I'll be surprised if they are the beneficiaries of Labour's demise here though. This is not fertile Tory territory, as their 24% share in 2005 illustrates. This constituency has a large gay population - one section of the electorate that shows no sign of buying into the Cameron spin about his newly tolerant party. Yesterday's news that one Tory candidate ran prayer sessions to 'cure' gay people will do them absolutely no favours here, nor in the equally marginal seat next door, Brighton Kemptown.
This region is probably the most liberal area of the UK, so in order to win, the Tories would need to attract many who've never even considered voting for them before.
