Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 April 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Paul Krishnamurty isn't too convinced the Conservatives can win the most seats in this year's election but has found a seat up in Yorkshire that they look a good price to take...

The polls appear to be fairly settled following the second debate, showing roughly a four point Tory lead over the Lib Dems, with Labour a close third. That would appear to suggest the Tories would win the most seats, but with so many regional and tactical forces in play, this is no certainty.

Bearing that in mind, it makes no sense in my view to back the Tories at [1.26] to be the largest party, when there are bigger prices around about seats that they would probably need to win in order to achieve that target. For example, Keighley is a [1.5] chance, despite being a seat that they could win easily whilst still losing nationally.

Critically, the Lib Dems are very weak in this part of England, making the seat a straight Lab/Con fight. The Tories would need a 5% swing to win it, which is very plausible even if Clegg doesn't eat into the Labour vote as expected. 35% is a competitive starting point for the Tories, especially considering their poor Yorkshire performance in 2005, which has prompted heavy targetting in the county since.

If, as the pollsters have suggested, there is a greater swing in the marginals, Keighley is bound to be one of them. It was Conservative until 1997, and smacks of the type of English town where Brown's version of New Labour has never looked like thriving. Moreover, Labour's chances are substantially weakened by the fact that popular MP Anne Cryer is standing down.