Politics / John Harms / 25 June 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

John Harms offers his creative spin on where the markets are in the winter of our discontent.

This is a truly great time of the punting cycle; a time when to sleep is to perpetrate a crime against your own financial future.

There is just so much happening across the sporting globe.

And there is value everywhere.

So what if it's the dead of winter. Galway Pipe will get you through, and a supply of snowballs and TeeVee Snacks (wafer style).

And reliable broadband.

Cold and dark and miserable outside? So what: it's not 2am in South Africa or at Ascot or Lingfield; it's not raining at Pebble Beach or Wimbledon; and there's one day cricket if that's your poison.

Add to that the six-month project that is your punt on the AFL premiership market, and you'll be using some of your profits to insure against RSI in the mouse-clicking finger.

And just when you thought it was hard to keep up with all the wonderful markets Betfair puts up a couple of Australian politics markets: when the next election is going to be held, and who is going to win it.

Labor is steady at $1.50, having blown out to $1.75+ a few weeks ago.

These are interesting times. It was simply amazing to be here in Canberra yesterday.

I think the federal election market will be rather volatile over the next few weeks. When assessing the two leaders, you have to consider their ability to capture the sports punting market.

An old Commie like me could never vote for the Tories. Although if Tony Abbott promised to allow in-play computer betting (especially on AFL matches, golf majors, and individual matches in Grand Slam tennis tournaments) I might just be persuaded.

I would, however, consider having a bet on the election. Because punting is about value.

I'll be checking out how Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott use sporting language in their (very) public life over the next few weeks, because it's important election-wise to use it well.

The impact of Kevin Rudd's sports talk should not be under-estimated when analysing his demise. It was diabolical. His ABC appearances during Test match broadcasts were awkward, but his Channel 9 performances were disastrous. Calling Warney 'Warney' (and 'mate') doesn't go down to well with the punters in the front bar. You need to have taken a squillion sickies, belted the star ruck-rover before the opening bounce of the Div 4 Grand Final, and tried to crack on to a gallery of Swedish back-packers to earn the right to call Warney 'Warney'.

Then, last winter Mr Rudd had an on-air chat with Chris Judd. "You're the Juddster," he said to the Carlton skipper, "and I'm the Ruddster."

It was one of those moments.

The writing was scribbled indelibly on the wall in recent times when he pepped up the Socceroos with that farewell speech, "Hey guys, just have some fun over there in South Africa."

If you look at the sequence of events which took place yesterday the pea was still reverberating around the ref's final whistle when the Caucus moved on K.Rudd.

Clearly they blamed him for the failure of the Socceroos to make the Round of 16.

Gone.

But forget Kevin07. We have to look at the protagonists now.

Julia Gillard has hitched her wagon to an unusual political adviser. She receives text messages from Aker (that noted 'team player'). Although she was born in the land of Gryffs, Myfs and the game they play in heaven, she grew up in Adelaide, and went to school not far from Unley Oval, the home of the mighty Sturt football club.

When she arrived at the fag end of the Westgate Bridge, she became a Footscray fan before some branding consultant had their name changed to the Western Bulldogs.

And, she seems to be a genuine fan.

Tony doesn't talk sport much - he's too busy out there in his green and gold lycra, a shiny John Howard on wheels. If not cycling around Canberra (much to the frustration of the camera crews who have been sent to chase him in the pre-dawn cold), he's pumping out triathlons.

This is not leadership in my view. I want someone who values the couch and Foxtel and the Betfair account.

There was a lot of sports chat from Julia Gillard and some of her colleagues yesterday.

"Same great team, different captain," Grame Perrett, the member for Moreton, explained.

With talk like that he is destined for higher office.

Must fly: 14 different markets to keep an eye on.

Oh, and by the way, on last week's thought, Andy Murray got in to $7.40 to win Wimbledon at one stage, and then blew to $11.

And England were in to $9.20 to win the World Cup, and are now back out to $12.50.

My Argentina wager is just ticking along. $12 is looking like very good value at the moment.