Other sports / Tour Connoisseur / 18 August 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Just when you thought it was safe to go back to the velodrome, the Tour Connoisseur is back with his run down on the upcoming Tour of Spain.

The third and final Grand Tour for this year, the 2011 Vuelta A Espana promises to be a beauty!

And with 10 Categorised Mountain stages, the course leans towards a climbing specialist, although being late in the season it can also pull a few surprises.

With many of the Tour De France contenders crashing out in the first week of the TDF, quite a few of them have decided to come here to make amends for their 2011 season.

I would say it is top heavy in 'Overall Contenders', but there are really only 5-6 who wll ultimately challenge for the overall crown.

The Contenders

Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale)
He is the defending champion and has had a similar program this year, competing in the Giro first where he finished 3rd overall, then skipping the Tour in order to have better preparation for here.

At 26 he is a year older and and should really be on the up.

Igor Anton Hernandez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)
We'll never know how well he could have gone last year when he was leading the race and looking good until he crashed out dramatically.

Hernandez has shown signs of similar form this year with a stage win in the mountains at the Giro. And of course being Spanish he will rise to the occasion.

Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC)
The Russian is probably the highest credentialed GC contender.

With two Vuelta Victories, plus a Giro win and a podium at the Tour, it wouldn't be silly to pencil him in as the overall winner in three weeks time.

However, with his new team not getting the starts they hoped for, he's been missing from the action quite a bit this year and therefore his form is a bit of an unknown.

Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD)
Runner up to Alberto Contador at this Year's Giro d'Italia, the Italian has stated he comes to this race to win!

His climbing ability will be a plus, but the Individual time trial will have a question mark over it if it's tight.

Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)
His whole season was primed for the Tour De France, but like many contenders Wiggins crashed out and had to re think his year.

He has proved he can climb, yet whether or not it will be enough to go with the best in Spain is anyone's guess. On his side is the 47km individual time trial plus the 16km Teams TimeTrial to kick things off, and he should gain time if not win both of these stages.

He has a strong team around him and will be keen to prove his doubters wrong.

The Outsiders

Carlos Sastre (Geox-TMC)
As with teammate Denis Menchov, the Spaniard has been missing from a lot of the big Calender races in 2011. Remember though he has won the Tour De France and finished second twice and third once in his home tour. With a smaller race program this year, it may just be the recipe he's needed.

Joaquim Rodriguez (Team Katusha)
Finishing 4th overall in last year's race, on his day he can climb with the best, if not better. The big question mark though lies over his ability or rather lack of ability to time trial. Losing around six minutes to the stage winner in last year's TT, this will cost him big time if he does a repeat performance. On the other hand, if he can limit his losses to three minutes, he could be in the hunt.

The Smokey

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto)
The Belgian certainly deserves a mention given he finished 5th overall last year at the Tour De France and was another rider looking good at this year's race until the curse of the 2011 TDF (crashes) claimed him as well. Normally I may rate him higher, but his crash was a nasty one, resulting in a punctured lung, three broken ribs and a wrecked shoulder. How well he has recovered, only time will tell.

In Summary

I would back last year's winner in Nibali as the man to beat.

He is one of the most well rounded riders, and can climb, descend and time trial better than his main Spanish rivals. It should be enough.

Wiggins though could have something to say about that. On paper he can possibly match Nibali on the climbs, descents and then rip time on him in the time trials, so I'd put some on him also.

Scarponi has to be considered also. He's talked up his form leading into this, so he's worth placing a little on. Then you've got Anton and Menchov, who both could surprise. Already a two time winner, if Menchov is on he could be very dangerous. Rodriguez and Sastre will be there or thereabouts, with maybe a podium finish, but I just don't think at a good enough level to win overall.