Olympics / Editor / 05 August 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Fidel may have gone but the Cuba/US rivalry will see sparks fly. Elsewhere, look out for intrigue and subtlety.

How it works

There are eight teams, everyone plays everyone else, and Cuba wins - usually.
The eight teams in the tournament are the top two from the Americas (USA, Cuba), the top Asian country (Japan), the top European country (Netherlands) and three from a best-of-the-rest qualifying event (Canada, Korea and Chinese Taipei), plus the hosts (China).

They all play each other once in a round robin tournament, then fourth plays first and second plays third in the semis, before the winners scrap for gold.

The rules are essentially the same as US major league baseball with a few small exceptions, such as the "mercy rule": if one team is getting clobbered by ten runs or more by the seventh or eighth innings, they can call it a day. And the pitchers don't bat.

Who'll do well?

There is a huge gulf in talent between Cuba, the US and Japan, and everyone else. Cuba sends its best players and has won the Baseball World Cup 25 out of 37 times. The US sends top college and minor league players, many of whom have major league experience (the Olympics falls in the middle of the baseball season, so no top pros). Japan sends a couple of players from each of its major league teams. The rest do what they can.

Since baseball was introduced in 1992, Cuba has won gold three times, the USA once. Japan has never finished outside fourth place and has two silvers and a bronze.

What makes it interesting?

Baseball is hugely misunderstood in non-playing countries which see it as just beefy guys smacking home runs. Good baseball is intense and precise, but it needs a smart commentator to point up the subtleties that make it so intriguing. A finely balanced game can be as compelling as a Hollywood thriller, and close games can spring heartbreaking surprises when the pressure becomes unbearable in late innings.

Why bet on it?

Two reasons: because the US/Cuba rivalry is as fierce as ever, and because freaky things can happen in one-off games, especially when pitchers have an off day. The US failed even to qualify for the Olympics in 2004 after they lost a single game 1-0. Australia beat Cuba and Japan in the 2004 round robin games, and eventually won silver. No team has lost all seven round robin games - and there have been some truly abysmal participants.