Olympics / Editor / 11 August 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Former Australian Medalist Simon Hinsley is an expert swimming form analyst. Through analysing every major meet and the relevant Olympic Trials, coupled with intimate knowledge from members of the Australian Olympic Swim Team this preview is a thorough form guide of all the information needed to assist in taking advantage of the value and laying the false favourites.

50m FREESTYLE

World record: 23.97 - Lisbeth Trickett (USA), Melbourne, 27.3.07
2004 Olympic champion: Inge de Bruijn (NED) 24.58
2007 World champion: Lisbeth Lenton (later Trickett), 24.53

The World Top 10, 2008:
23.97 Lenton/Trickett, Lisbeth AUS 2007 24.53
24.09 Veldhuis, Marleen NED 2007 24.30
24.13 Campbell, Cate AUS 2007 24.48
24.19 Steffen, Britta GER 2007 24.66
24.25 Torres, Dara USA 2007 24.53
24.48 Hardy, Jessica USA 2007 25.39
24.50 Jackson, Lara USA 2007 25.27
24.59 Joyce, Kara Lynn USA 2007 24.80
24.59 Schreuder, Hinkelien NED 2007 24.91
24.71 Alshammar, Therese SWE 2007 24.23

Danger just outside the top 10: Francesca Halsall (GBR) and Inge Dekker (NED) have big potential.

The word: It may end up being two ends of the spectrum age wise. With Torres 41 and Cate Campbell only 16, both have claims to the race. The gold medal will likely be decided by a sub 24 second swim with Trickett, Veldhuis and Campbell the only three to really have tested the barrier - with Trickett the only one to have broken it. On face value Trickett should prove to be too strong technically with her start and underwater work, more superior to the rest of the field.

Value bet: Campbell, the giant teenager measuring at 181cm looks to have the world at her feet, literally. With the possibility of further improvement since the April Australian Trials, the quotes on offer look to be great value.

The Australians: Both Trickett and Campbell have a realistic chance of going 1-2.

1st Lenton
2nd Veldhuis
3rd Campbell

100m FREESTYLE

World record: 52.88 - Lisbeth Lenton/Trickett (AUS), Sydney, 27.03.08
2004 Olympic champion: Jodie Henry (AUS) 53.66
2007 World champion: Lenton/Trickett 53.40

The World Top 10, 2008:
52.88 Lenton/Trickett, Lisbeth AUS 2007 52.99
53.05 Steffen, Britta GER 2007 53.57
53.30 Campbell, Cate AUS 2007 54.70
53.39 Coughlin, Natalie USA 2007 53.40
53.67 Veldhuis, Marleen NED 2007 53.58
53.76 Torres, Dara USA 2007 54.45
53.77 Dekker, Inge NED 2007 54.39
53.99 Metella, Malia FRA 2007 54.61
54.00 Seppala, Hanna-M. FIN 2007 54.97
54.02 Nymeyer, Lacey USA 2007 54.96

Danger just outside the top 10: Pang Jiaying (CHN) and Francesca Halsall (GBR) have times just outside the 54 second mark.

The word: Trickett has twice broken the elusive 53 second barrier, she has proved that she can now step up in the big time after her Athens failure (after breaking the world record in the semi-finals). Britta Steffen is snapping at her heels with a 53.05 in her Adidas suit (the German team is brand-locked with Adidas). Campbell and Coughlin are sure to be close. It remains to be seen how much improvement Campbell has since her 53.30, if she has what many think she does, she could be a real threat and is definitely the one to watch. Dutch duo, Veldhuis and Dekker will be thereabouts of the rest.

Most consistent: Trickett has four of the all-time 10 best performances, while Britta Steffen holds three.

Value Bet: Campbell remains the best value with her untapped potential unknown, she could cause a big upset and have a real run at the world record.

The Australians: Once again, it would not be surprising to see the Aussie pair of Trickett and Campbell go 1-2.

1st Campbell
2nd Trickett
3rd Steffen

200m FREESTYLE

World record: 1:55.52 - Laure Manaudou (FRA), Melbourne, 28.3.07
2004 Olympic champion: Camelia Potec (ROM) 1:58.03
2007 World champion: Laure Manaudou (FRA), 1:55.52

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:55.88 Hoff, Katie USA 2007 1:57.09
1:55.90 Isakovic, Sara SLO 2007 1:58.19
1:55.92 Schmitt, Allison USA 2007 1:59.47
1:56.10 Pellegrini, Federica ITA 2007 1:56.47
1:56.60 Barratt, Bronte AUS 2007 1:57.54
1:56.61 Jackson, Joanne GBR 2007 1:59.39
1:56.66 Adlington, Rebecca GBR 2007 2:00.55
1:56.73 Smit, Julia USA 2007 2:01.82
1:56.99 MacKenzie, Linda AUS 2007 1:58.61
1:57.04 Coventry, Kirsty ZIM 2007

Danger just outside the top 10: of those actually in the race, Caitlin McClatchey (GBR) and reigning champion Camelia Potec (ROM) lead the way.

The word: With the world record holder Manaudou gone after pulling out of the 200m at the respective trials, the race is wide open. A good starting point will be to refer to the results of the 400m on the Monday afternoon. Hoff leads the pack marginally ahead of Slovakian Isakovic and Schmitt the battle is intense and much will be found out after the Monday afternoon. The other contender is Pellegrini, she is expected to take out the 400m and she may just make it a double here. Betting wise, it is an event that will be for the nerves of steel and there is terrific value amongst some of the swimmers.

Most consistent: Hoff - with three times this year inside 1:57.10; Isakovic has four times this year between 1:55.90 and 1:57.45.

Value Bet: Isakovic has shown her capabilities with almost the 2008 best swim and has the required speed. She will be at a healthy quote as well.
The Australians: Bronte Barratt and Linda Mackenzie will be the Aussie representatives. Barratt has a real shot at making the final and causing some ripples. While Mackenzie will be better suited to the 400m and 800m.

1st Pellegrini
2nd Isakovic
3rd Hoff

800m FREESTYLE

World record: 8:16.22 - Janet Evans (USA), Tokyo, 20.8.1989
Olympic champion: Ai Shibata (JPN) 8:24.54
World champion: Kate Ziegler (USA) 8:18.52

The World Top 10, 2008:
8:19.22 Adlington, Rebecca GBR 2007 8:25.73
8:19.70 Hoff, Katie USA 2007 8:22.80
8:20.70 Filippi, Alessia ITA 2007 8:41.62
8:23.78 Potec, Camelia ROU 2007 8:37.97
8:24.08 Villaecija, Erika ESP 2007 8:27.59
8:24.30 Palmer, Kylie AUS 2007 8:29.36
8:25.38 Ziegler, Kate USA 2007 8:18.52
8:25.63 Balmy, Coralie FRA 2007 8:32.01
8:26.70 Ehmcke, Jaana GER 2007 8:45.54
8:26.88 Trott, Wendy RSA 2007 8:31.53

Danger just outside the top 10: Rigamonti (SUI) is one threat that may be there in the final.

The word: Alington on this year's form alone, is the favourite. She has the runs on the board and the work behind her to justify favouritism. However, she will face incredibly tough competition in Hoff and Ziegler. Ziegler may have just been building up to the most important meet of her life and may not have rested completely during the US Olympic Trials. She is the closest one to Janet Evans 18 year old record. An important form line to follow for this event will be the results of the 400m. If Ziegler posts a very strong time, she may be the one. Filippi is an incredible improver from last year and may be one to watch.

Most consistent: Adlington and Ziegler have four entries in the best 25 performances this year, timed between 8:19 and 8:28.

Value Bet: Ziegler has to be the value in this race. With the fastest time out of the entire field and a proven big stage performer she will be there for a long way and may prove too tough.

The Australians: Australia will only have the one representative swimming in the 800m, Kylie Palmer. Palmer is one of the youngest members of the Australian Swimming Team and is definitely on the rise. She should qualify for the final and with improvement will be in the hunt for a medal.

1st Ziegler
2nd Adlington
3rd Hoff

100m BREASTSTROKE

World Record: 1:05.09 - Leisel Jones (AUS), Melbourne, 20.3.06
Olympic champion: Luo Xuejuan (CHN) 1:06.64
World champion: Jones 1:05.72

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:05.34 Jones, Leisel AUS 2007 1:05.72
1:06.04 White, Tarnee AUS 2007 1:08.34
1:06.39 Hardy, Jessica USA 2007 1:07.38
1:06.66 Kirk, Tara USA 2007 1:06.34
1:06.87 Soni, Rebecca USA 2007 1:06.94
1:07.06 Quann/Jendrick, Megan USA 2007 1:07.19
1:07.10 Edmistone, Jade AUS 2007 1:08.24
1:07.10 Poewe, Sarah GER 2007 1:09.60
1:07.35 Efimova, Yulia RUS 2007 1:09.28
1:07.56 Haywood, Kate GBR 2007 1:08.19

Danger just outside the top 10: to Jones, probably none but Britain's Kate Haywood and Japan's Tamura Tanaka lead those who will be pressing for a place in the final and an outside shot at the podium.

The word: It remains to be seen that anyone can in fact challenge Jones other than herself. Her biggest threat in Hardy has been withdrawn from The Games for failing a drug test. Overcoming the disappointments of Silver and Bronze in Sydney and Athens respectively, will be the mental challenge for Jones. There will be only one real contender to Leisel Jones and that is her teammate Tarnee White. Even so, she is still more than a second away from Jones best time and it is hard to see that Jones won't improve that world record again in Beijing.

Most consistent: Jones, has a record of nine of the top ten swims ever.

Value Bet: There isn't one. Sit back and watch Leisel race the clock.

The Australians: Obviously Jones and White are a massive chance to complete the quinella for Australia.

1st Jones
2nd White
3rd Soni

200m BREASTSTROKE

World Record: 2:20.54 - Leisel Jones (AUS), Melbourne, 1.2.06
Olympic champion: Amanda Beard (USA) 2:23.37
World champion: Jones 2:21.84

The World Top 10, 2008:
2:20.58 Jones, Leisel AUS 2007 2:21.45
2:22.60 Soni, Rebecca USA 2007 2:23.36
2:23.96 Taneda, Megumi JPN 2007 2:23.85
2:24.09 Efimova, Yulia RUS 2007 2:25.23
2:24.20 Jukic, Mirna AUT 2007 2:25.46
2:24.65 Pierse, Annamay CAN 2007 2:25.22
2:24.81 Foster, Sally AUS 2007 2:27.75
2:25.07 Jung, Seul-Ki KOR 2007 2:24.67
2:25.13 Beard, Amanda USA 2007 2:28.68
2:25.19 Detenyuk, Olga RUS 2007

Danger just outside the top 10: None

The word: Jones again by how far. This will be a real race for silver and one to sit back and watch the red line and Leisel Jones battle it out. The reigning Olympic Champion Amanda Beard has made a comeback after two years out of the pool and is one to watch perhaps more for her photo shoots than her performances in the pool!

Most consistent: Jones again has all bar one of the top ten times ever swum.

Value Bet: Once again, there is no value at all.

The Australians: Jones and Sally Foster will compete for Australia. Foster has a realistic chance for a medal and will appear in the final.

1st Jones
2nd Soni
3rd Efimova

100m BACKSTROKE

World record: 58.97 - Natalie Coughlin (USA), Omaha, 1.7.08
Olympic champion: Coughlin 1:00.37
World champion: Coughlin 59.44

The World Top 10, 2008:
58.97 Coughlin, Natalie USA 2007 59.44
59.15 McGregory, Hayley USA 2007 1:00.93
59.21 Hoelzer, Margaret USA 2007 1:00.66
59.41 Zueva, Anastasia RUS 2007 1:00.85
59.42 Coventry, Kirsty ZIM 2007 59.85
59.50 Manaudou, Laure FRA 2007 59.87
59.59 Seebohm, Emily AUS 2007 1:00.51
59.81 Zhao, Jing CHN 2007 1:01.85
59.82 Nakamura, Reiko JPN 2007 1:00.29
59.83 Ito, Hanae JPN 2007 1:00.62

Danger just outside the top 10: also under the minute: Sophie Edington (AUS); Gemma Spofforth (GBR).

The word: Coughlin may have too much class for this field. She is a out and out freak. Coughlin will face tough competition however principally in Manaudou - whom has clearly stated that she receives more pleasure from backstroke than freestyle - this will be a good form line to draw upon the potential of Manaudou's 200m chances. Hoelzer and Coventry will be fighting at the heels of Coughlin. Others in the mix include Zueva, who wrestled the European title from Manaudou.

Most consistent: Coughlin has recorded five of the top ten performances this year.

Value Bet: The young Aussie Seebohm is not without a chance at gold in Beijing. She has proven that she is always improving 0.6 from Coughlin's new world record. She could hold true to her quote at the Olympic Trials - "I'm coming for you Coughlin." Big words for a 16 year-old.

The Australians: Seebohm will lead the charge with Sophie Edington. Edington has also dipped under the minute barrier and will hopefully be there in the final. Seebohn appears to have more ability to bring down her best.

1st Coughlin
2nd Hoelzer
3rd Seebohm

200m BACKSTROKE

World record: 2:06.09 - Margaret Hoelzer (USA), Omaha, 5.7.08
Olympic champion: Kirsty Coventry (ZIM) 2:09.19
World champion: Hoelzer, 2:07.16

The World Top 10, 2008:
2:06.09 Hoelzer, Margaret USA 2007 2:07.16
2:06.39 Coventry, Kirsty ZIM 2007 2:06.83
2:06.64 Manaudou, Laure FRA 2007 2:14.39
2:06.92 Beisel, Elizabeth USA 2007 2:11.91
2:07.69 McGregory, Hayley USA 2007 2:14.60
2:07.94 Castel, Alexianne FRA 2007 2:13.82
2:08.34 Nakamura, Reiko JPN 2007 2:08.54
2:08.41 Zhao, Jing CHN 2007 2:12.18
2:08.55 Nay, Meagen AUS 2007 2:11.13
2:08.56 Zueva, Anastasia RUS 2007 2:12.90

Danger just outside the top 10: teenagers Belinda Hocking (AUS) and Elizabeth Simmonds (GBR) are just inside the 2:09 barrier.

The word: Hoelzer and Coventry have been the two that have been creating all the fuss recently in this event, both wrestling the world record off each other. Coventry's performance at the World Short Course Championships served notice with a time that if translated into the long-course format, could well and truly blow the field away. Manaudou could be considered as the unknown factor amongst it all. Since deciding upon more of a concentration on backstroke, nothing should surprise. A clear form line should be drawn from her performance in the 100m backstroke. The other question is what to make of the baby of the US Swimming Team 15-year-old Beisel. She will have nothing to lose, no pressure, if she doesn't get overawed by the lights she may just have the swim of her young life.

Most consistent: Manaudou and Beisel both have three entries each in the best 10 performances of the year, all 2:08 flat or quicker.

Value Bet: It has to be Beisel. With so much scope for improvement and with a no-fuss attitude that youngsters may carry into such an important meet, she may just cause a massive upset at tremendous odds.

The Australians: Nay and Hocking will represent Australia in this event and don't be surprised to see Hocking with a big jump in the rankings to push for the final.

1st Coventry
2nd Manaudou
3rd Hoelzer

200m BUTTERFLY

World record: 2:05.40 Jessica Schipper AUS 2006
Olympic Champion: Jedrzejczak POL 2:06.05
World Champion:

The World Top 10, 2008:
2:06.38 Nakanishi, Yuko JPN
2:06.59 Mongel, Aurore FRA
2:06.64 Loew, Jemma GBR
2:06.71 Kovacs, Emese HUN
2:06.75 Breeden, Elaine USA
2:06.82 Schipper, Jessica AUS
2:07.04 Hosh, Nastumi JPN
2:07.05 Isakovic, Sara SLO
2:0712 Jedrzejczak, Otylia POL
2:07.13 Hersey, Kathleen USA

The word: It's hard to gauge the form of the top flight women in this event as none have raced at their best and look to be saving it for the one that counts. Jedrzejczak and Schipper are yet to return to the form that has seen them dominate for the past four years. While there has been an emergence of younger stars led by Elaine Breeden from the States, her 2.06.75 under great pressure at US Olympic Trials to take out the title can give faith that she will be able to handle the big stage at only 19. Meanwhile another American to keep a close eye on is Kathleen Hersey.

Value Bet: Jedrzejczak to defend her title after her controversial victory in Athens that saw her finish with only one hand on the wall and yet not be disqualified. She looks to have held her best form back this year for the Olympics and will be at reasonable odds.

1st Jedrzejczak
2nd Schipper
3rd Breeden

200m INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY

World record: 2:08.92 Stephanie Rice AUS 2008
Olympic Champion: Yana Klochova UKR 2:11.14
World Champion: Katie Hoff USA 2:10.13

The World Top 10, 2008:
2:08.92 Rice, Stephanie AUS
2:09.71 Hoff, Kathryn USA
2:09.77 Coughlin, Natalie USA
2:10.08 Coventry, Kirsty ZIM
2:10.40 Kukors, Ariana USA
2:11.15 Muffat, Camille FRA
2:11.16 Belmonte, Mireia ESP
2:11.28 Leverenz, Caitlin USA
2:11.46 Miley, Hannah GBR
2:11.87 Coutts, Alicia AUS

The word: Stephanie Rice has made some serious gains since last years World Championships, where she was the bronze medalist in both medleys. Her biggest test will come in the form of Katie Hoff who is becoming a superstar in her own right. However, it may be that Rice has too much pace for her in the shorter version of the medley. Another advantage that Rice will have up her sleeve is the fact that Hoff has the 200m Freestyle final on the same night as this event, which is never an easy task. Natalie Coughlin will prove to be a mighty obstacle of her own in an event that she has decided to take seriously in the last 18 months, ditching the 200m Freestyle and 200m Backstroke from her program, expect a large improvement from her. Coventry will be next in the chasing the pack.

Value Bet: Coughlin is so strong in backstroke, butterfly and freestyle and just needs to put it altogether to take home the gold. Expect the champion to give the two more favoured girls a big run for their money.

The Australians: Rice and Alicia Coutts will line up for Australia. Expect Rice to be in big contention as the world record holder and Coutts to make a big push for a final berth.

1st Rice
2nd Coughlin
3rd Hoff

Women's 4x200 FREESTYLE RELAY

World record: 7:50.09 (Coughlin, Vollmer, Nymeyer, Hoff) USA 2007
Olympic Champion: USA (Coughlin, Piper, Vollmer, Sandeno) 7:53.42
World Champion: USA (Coughlin, Vollmer, Nymeyer, Hoff) 7:50.09

The word: With three swimmers in the top ten this year, the US have a mortgage on this race and also have the added bonus of adding Natalie Coughlin to their squad. Simply, the US will win and will win by a long way. The Australian's on the other hand will have a real crack at a silver medal and would be favourites to do so over France and Great Britain. The Australian team will include Trickett, Barratt, Mackenzie and perhaps even Stephanie Rice, one which will keep the Americans honest at least.

Value Bet: Not much value here with the US almost unbeatable.

1st USA
2nd Australia
3rd Great Britain

Women's 4x100 MEDLEY RELAY

World record: 3:55.74 Australia (Seebohm, Jones, Schipper, Lenton) 2007
Olympic Champion: Australia (Rooney, Jones, Thomas, Henry) 3:57.32
World Champion: Australia (Seebohm, Jones, Schipper, Lenton) 3:55.74

The word: The women's medley relay is quite similar to the men's in that Australia have such a dominance on the event. With Seebohm well entrenched in the world rankings for the Backstroke leg, Leisel Jones so dominant in the breaststroke, Libby Trickett set to challenge the butterfly world record and young Cate Campbell rising so quickly, the record books could be dramatically changed. The main challengers will come from the US with Coughlin leading the charge, however their chances have been severely harmed by the banning of Jessica Hardy. The Brits will also be right up there but the Australian's look untouchable.
Value Bet: If you fancy US chances you will get a good price but the Australian's should be far too strong.

1st Australia
2nd United States
3rd Great Britain