Olympics / Editor / 11 August 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Former Australian Medalist Simon Hinsley is an expert swimming form analyst. Through analysing every major meet and the relevant Olympic Trials, coupled with intimate knowledge from members of the Australian Olympic Swim Team this preview is a thorough form guide of all the information needed to assist in taking advantage of the value and laying the false favourites.

50m FREESTYLE

World record: 21.28 - Eamon Sullivan (AUS), Sydney, 28.3.08
2004 Olympic champion: Gary Hall Jr (USA) 21.93
2007 World champion: Ben Wildman-Tobriner (USA) 21.88

The World Top 10, 2008:
21.28 Sullivan (AUS) - 2007, 22.05
21.38 Leveaux (FRA) - 2007, 22.80
21.47 Weber-Gale (USA) - 2007, 22.52
21.50 Bernard (FRA) - 2007, 21.76
21.53 Bousquet (FRA) - 2007, 22.31**
21.59 Jones (USA) - 2007, 21.82**
21.65 Wildman-Tobriner (USA) - 2007, 21.80
21.75 Cielo (BRA) - 2007, 21.84
21.86 El-Masri (GER)- 2007, 22.61
21.89 Hall (USA) - 2007, 22.52
** Did not qualify for their respective countries.**

Danger just outside the top 10: at 21.90, Schoeman (RSA) silver medalist in Athens still has the potential to push for a medal, as does Duje Draganja (CRO), whose world short-course record gave notice to the rest of the world in April.

The word: Eamon Sullivan has gone from a medal contender to the outright gold medal favourite. With the world record of 21.28, the lean machine weighing in at a whopping 75kg is the one to beat. Frenchman Alain Bernard is on the other side of the spectrum at 6ft 5. A man mountain, he will definitely be a major threat to the gold. However as one of the most difficult of races to call, the 50m free there are many contenders. Wildman-Tobriner has proved he can win when it matters most, represented with his World Championship last year in Melbourne. He is a machine too; he underwent surgery in order to repair a torn pectoral muscle which disrupted his training for over three months. Amaury Levaux, the second Frenchman has proved his extreme versatility recording top ten times for the 50m Freestyle as well as the 200m Freestyle. He will be coming home hard in the final five meters. It will be an uphill battle to qualify for the final so betting may completely change after the conclusion of the second semi-final. In particular, the new morning finals format will test those in the semis as it will be critical to weeding out those who can get up and fight and those who can't.

1st Sullivan
2nd Bernard
3rd Wildman-Tobriner

Most consistent: Bernard - has swum six times between 21.50 and 21.83.

Value Bet: With such a wide open race, there is a lot of value. Wildman-Tobriner has a lot of scope of improvement, Draganja and Fieldo - a 6ft 5 product of University of Auburn and 2008 NCAA Champion - will be thereabouts and could cause an upset.

The Australians: Sullivan is the gold-medal favourite and the current world-record holder. However, one that is just coming into some of the best form of his career is Sydney Olympic Gold Medalist Ashley Callus. Callus, swam his first personal best in over two years at the Australia Olympic Trials and will be sure to made his presence felt if he can get through the qualifying rounds.

100m FREESTYLE

World Record: 47.50 - Alain Bernard (FRA), Eindhoven, Netherlands, 22.3.08
2004 Olympic champion: Pieter van den Hoogenband (NED) 48.17
2007 World champion: Filippo Magnini (ITA), Brent Hayden (CAN) =48.43

The World Top 10, 2008:
47.50 Bernard (FRA) - 2007, 48.12
47.52 Sullivan (AUS) - 2007, 48.47
47.58 Lezak (USA) - 2007, 48.51
47.78 Weber-Gale (USA) - 2007, 49.04
47.92 Phelps (USA) - 2007, 48.42
48.02 Gilot (FRA) - 2007, 48.49
48.26 Lagunov (RUS) - 2007, 48.78
48.29 Brunelli (USA) - 2007, 49.04
48.34 Cielo (BRA) - 2007, 48.51
48.35 Jones (USA) - 2008, 49.59

Danger just outside the top 10: Magnini, Matthew Targett (AUS), Hoogie, Nystrand.

The word: In this event, The Flying Dutchman Hoogenband will attempt to become the first man ever to win the same swimming event at three consecutive Games. He will have tough competition though, in an event that has changed considerably in the past year. Bernard leads the charge after wiping Hoogie's world record, Sullivan, Lezak and Weber-Gale have also now gone under the time that was untouchable for so long. So much has been said about the LZR suits that it is also interesting to note the World Champion Filippo Magnini left his sponsor Arena just two weeks out from the Games in order to wear a suit that he believes can help him to make a big leap and lift the crown. Another important fact regarding the LZR suit is that the joint World Champion Brent Hayden has yet to don the suit when ready to race at his peak. Sullivan is just 0.02sec away from Bernard, while Jason Lezak, 32, has found a different level to what he has been able to in the past eight years. How much impact could these suits make is yet to be known.

Most consistent: Bernard - seven times between 47.50 and 48.20.

Value Bet: Sentimental value always has a temptation and Hoogie will be big odds to make history. The reigning World Champion Magnini is yet to show his best this year and may peak at the right time.

The Australians: Sullivan is obviously the second if not equal favourite for the event while one of the keys to the 4x100 Freestyle Relay will be Matthew Targett. The Melbournian will be pressing to make the final and improve his standings in order to strengthen the Australian Relay Team.
1st Bernard
2nd Sullivan
3rd Magnini

200m FREESTYLE

World record: 1:43.86 - Michael Phelps (USA), Melbourne, 27.3.07
2004 Olympic champion: Ian Thorpe (AUS) 1:44.71
2007 World champion: Phelps, 1:43.86

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:44.10 Phelps (USA) - 2007, 1:43.86
1:45.61 Lochte (USA) - 2007, 1:47.66
1:45.85 Basson (RSA) - 2007, 1:49.61
1:45.85 Vanderkaay (USA) - 2007, 1:45.45
1:45.96 Van den Hoogenband (NED) - 2007, 1:45.65
1:46.14 Berens (USA) - 2007, 1:48.42
1:46.20 Keller (USA) - 2007, 1:49.03
1:46.26 Park (KOR) 2007, 1:46.73
1:46.37 Biedermann (GER) - 2007, 1:48.09
1:46.54 Leveaux (FRA) - 2007, 1:48.35

Danger just outside the top 10: on 1:46.65, watch for teenager Danil Izotov (RUS), whose teammate Alex Sukhorukov sits right next to him in the rankings.

The word: For Michael Phelps, this could be one of the easiest events in his effort to create history. Phelps has a clear advantage over the rest of the field however there may be a couple of surprises worth noting and at tasty odds. One in particular is Jean Basson, of South Africa, who leapt from a 1:49 best to a 1:45.85 at the South African Olympic Trials in April. Hoogenband has already signaled his intentions to focus on the 100m Freestyle instead of 'coming second to Michael'.

Value Bet: Basson is the most interesting aspect in the race with such a drop in time. The question is can he go even faster? Izotov is another that may find himself on the podium. With Phelps such a clear favourite, the value is the field.

The Australians: As Grant Hackett pulled out of the event in order to focus on others, Kenrick Monk and Nicholas Sprenger are those representing. Monk finished fourth last year at the Melbourne World Championships and with some improvement will be sure to be up there again. Whereas Sprenger - an Olympic Relay Gold Medalist at Athens - is the wildcard, after being off the scene through illness for two years he is back on track and sure to make considerable gains on his best time in 2008.

1st Phelps
2nd Basson
3rd Leveaux

1500m FREESTYLE

World Record: 14:34.56 - Grant Hackett (Australia), Fukuoka, Japan, 29.7.01
2004 Olympic champion: Grant Hackett (Australia) 14:43.40
2007 World champion: Mateusz Sawrymowicz (Poland) 14:45.94

The World Top 10, 2008:
14:45.54 Vanderkaay (USA) - 2007, no time
14:46.78 Vendt (USA) - 2007, 14:57.01
14:48.65 Hackett (AUS) - 2007, 14:48.70
14:50.40 Prilukov (RUS) - 2007, 14:47.29
14:50.59 Colbertaldo (ITA) - 2007, 14:56.22
14:50.65 Cochrane (CAN) - 2007, 14:59.02
14:50.80 Jensen (USA) - 2007, 14:52.98
14:53.18 Stevens (AUS) - 2007, 14:59.11
14:54.28 Davies (GBR) - 2007, 14:51.21
14:55.98 Zhang (CHN) - 2007, 14:59.02

Danger just outside the top 10: Oussama Mellouli (TUN) and world champion Mateusz Sawrymowicz (POL) will be in the mix.

The word: History is to be made and the rejuvenated Hackett will face the toughest field in his career. Don't be surprised if some of the big names miss the final as it will be cut-throat and therefore cause some to spend their energy already in the heats. Hackett had an off year last year, coming off serious shoulder surgery and sickness, he is back. His blistering world record in the 800m short-course is evidence of this. Vanderkaay is number one this year, but id widely r as a 200m and 400m swimmer, perhaps he is just realizing his full potential in this event. Podium placers in 2004, Jensen and Davies will be tough, while European foes Yuri Prilukov and Sawrymowicz are likely to ensure that this is one of the toughest and most grueling finals to make in Olympic history.

Most consistent: Vanderkaay, Hackett and Cochrane have all swum inside 15 minutes twice.

Value Bet: Prilukov has always avoided the spotlight of being a challenger and is a big danger, expect his time to drop from his yearly best.

The Australians: Apart from Hackett, Craig Stevens will be right there in the final pushing in the wide open event. With a lot less pressure than Athens, he might revel under such circumstances and push for a medal.

1st Hackett
2nd Prilukov
3rd Vanderkaay

200m BACKSTROKE

World record: 1:54.32 - Ryan Lochte (USA), Melbourne, 30.3.07; Aaron Peirsol (USA), Omaha, Nebraska, 4.7.08
2004 Olympic champion: Peirsol, 1:54.95
2007 World champion: Lochte, 1:54.32

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:54.32 Peirsol, Aaron USA 2007 1:54.77
1:54.34 Lochte, Ryan USA 2007 1:54.32
1:54.77 Irie, Ryosuke JPN 2007 1:57.30
1:55.84 Phelps, Michael USA 2007 1:54.65
1:55.85 Rogan, Markus AUT 2007 1:55.74
1:56.66 Vyatchanin, Arkadi RUS 2007 1:57.14
1:56.67 Tait, Gregor GBR 2007 1:58.86
1:56.75 Stoeckel, Hayden AUS 2007 2:01.72
1:56.82 Goddard, James GBR 2007 1:58.36
1:57.22 Delaney, Ashley AUS 2007 1:59.31
Danger just outside the top 10: No one out of the top ten will be likely to challenge.

The word: The duel between Lochte and Piersol is locked at one all - Lochte took victory and the world record in Melbourne last year, Peirsol struck back at the US Olympic Trials and touched out Lochte by 0.02sec. The gold medal will be very likely to require a new world record. The danger to both is overshadowed Ryosuke Irie (JPN), with a phenomenal leap from a 1:56.53 best to a 1:54.77 Asian record in June. Athens silver medalist Austria's Markus Rogan, the European champion, believes he will be in the mix again, but will need to step up a second and more.

Most consistent:Peirsol - an amazing seven out of 11 of the best performances this year

Value Bet: By far one the value bets of the Olympics is Irie, at only 17 when swimming the Asian record that has put him right up into contention; there is much scope to this Japanese young gun.

The Australians: Stoeckel will be Australia's greatest hope in an event that has always been the weakest in Australia's swimming. However, times have changed and Stoeckel and Delaney will pose some threat to the medals if they are to improve on their bests from the Olympic Trials.

1st Lochte
2nd Peirsol
3rd Irie

100m BREASTSTROKE

World Record: Brendan Hansen USA 59.13 2006
Olympic Champion: Kosuke Kitajima JPN 1:00.08
World Champion: Brendan Hansen 59.80

The World Top 10, 2008:
59.13 Hansen, Brendan USA
59.44 Kitajima, Kosuke JPN
59.76 Dale Oen, Alexander NOR
59.78 Duboscq, Hugues FRA
59.88 Cook, Chris GBR
1:00.04 Rickard, Brenton AUS
1:00.09 Sloudnov, Roman RUS
1:00.10 Gangloff, Mark USA
1:00.15 Sprenger, Christian AUS
1:00.39 Gibson, James GBR

Danger outside Top 10: It would be a big surprise to see anyone outside the top ten push for the medal dais.

The word: It will all brew down to the form that Brendan Hansen is carrying into Beijing. With the much publicized failure in the 200m Breastroke at the US Olympic trials, it may be a blessing in disguise for Hansen, whom has much more power in the water than Kitajima, as he will only be concentrating on this event. Kitajima is the rockstar of Japan, the defending Olympic Champion will definitely be pushing Hansen in the second lap but it may be Hansen has too much speed for Kitajima. Of the other contenders, Duboscq the bronze medalist at Athens has recently dipped under the magic minute barrier and is a proven performer on the big stage. Dale Oen is also a medalist chance with scope for an improvement from his European Championship winning time but realistically it is a race in two. Expect a world record, most likely from Hansen.

Value Bet: After the obvious two - Hansen and Kitijima - Dale Oen has the best chance of reducing his best time this year and if the Norweigan can drop it substantially he is not without a chance at good odds.

The Australians: Rickard and Sprenger have both gone very close to breaking the minute barrier this year and will have to do so if they are a realistic chance of a medal. Both should battle it out for a finals berth and both have blistering first 50 speed.

1st Hansen
2nd Kitajima
3rd Duboscq

200m BREASTSTROKE

World Record: 2:07.51 Kosuke Kitajima 2008
Olympic Champion: Kosuke Kitajima 2:09.44
World Champion:

The World Top 10, 2008:

2:07.51 Kitajima, Kosuke JPN
2:09.51 Rickard, Brenton AUS
2:09.60 Hansen, Brendan USA
2:09.64 Falko, Grigori RUS
2:09.72 Duboscq, Hugues FRA
2:09.74 Dale Oen, Alexander NOR
2:09.74 Spann, Scott W. USA
2:10.17 Suenaga, Yuta JPN
2:10.24 Shanteau, Eric USA
2:10.33 Tateishi, Ryo JPN

Danger outside Top 10: There remains to be no danger at all to Kitajima, even in the Top 10

The word: Kitajima. It is simple, there is no challenger that will get near Kitajima. After Brendan Hansen, Kitajima's biggest rival shocked the swimming world in missing a berth in this event, the door was left wide open for Kitajima to defend his Olympic Crown. One interesting point to note, is that Eric Shanteau who beat Hansen into second place at the US Olympic Trials revealed after his qualification that he was in fact battling testicular cancer before the trials and has put off surgery to compete at the Olympic Games. A truly inspirational story.

Value: Kitajima, is better than bank interest, take it.

The Australians: Rickard and Sprenger will again contest the 200m with Rickard having a terrific chance to bring home a medal for Australia. Sprenger may push for a finals berth with his teammate.

1st Kitijama
2nd Duboscq
3rd Rickard

100m BUTTERFLY

World Record: 50.40 Ian Crocker USA 2005
Olympic Champion: Michael Phelps USA 51.25
World Champion: Michael Phelps USA

The World Top 10, 2008:
50.89 Phelps, Michael USA
51.32 Crocker, Ian USA
51.50 Bousquet, Frederick FRA
51.65 Cavic, Milorad SRB
51.71 Kawamoto, Kohei JPN
51.86 Kishida, Masayuki JPN
51.86 Stovall, William USA
51.89 Korotyshkin, Evgeni RUS
51.91 Lauterstein, Andrew AUS
52.01 Mangabeira, Gabriel BRA
52.05 Rupprath, Thomas GER

The word: It has been billed as Phelps most dangerous threat to his historic quest to equal or better Mark Spitz record of seven gold medals at one Olympic Games. However, going on recent form it may be easier than it might appear. Crocker - forever one to look a little out of shape - was out of tune at the most recent US Olympic Trials and would need to improve significantly on that effort. Another key to this event is that Phelps will have swam over thirteen races already and there may be a question mark about the durability that is the freak, Phelps. If he is going to get caught out any time in his quest it may in fact be Crocker that will bring him down. Of the rest, Bousquet missed qualification in his pedigree of freestyle and as a result may have benefited from a greater focus on his butterfly. Cavic is a speed machine and is consistently improving. However, it appears that the two United States swimmers are in a league of their own and are widely expected to go 1-2.

Value Bet: Crocker may in fact end up being the value bet as such will the rage be on Phelps that they may in fact be forgetting that Crocker owns the world record.

The Australians: Andrew Lauterstein is one character that is rising rapidly in the butterfly and freestyle ranks. Do not be surprised to see him right in the thick of things. With further improvement an Olympic final is a definite chance and from there, anything can happen. Adam Pine, the grandfather of Australian swimming is still coming into some of the best form of his career, he will be there in the semi-finals pushing for a finals berth.

1st Phelps
2nd Crocker
3rd Cavic

200m BUTTERFLY

World Record: 1:52.09 Michael Phelps USA 2007
Olympic Champion: Michael Phelps 1:54.04
World Champion: Michael Phelps 1:52.09

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:52.20 Phelps, Michael USA
1.53.86 Stovall, William USA
1:54.16 Drymonakos, Ioannis GRE
1.54.38 Korzeniowski, Pawel POL
1:54.42 Matsuda, Takeshi JPN
1:54.46 Tarwater, Davis USA
1:54.65 Skvortsov, Nikolai RUS
1:54.82 Wu, Peng CHN
1.54.99 Burmester, Moss NZL
1:55.10 D'Arcy, Nick AUS

The word: The Phelps show is sure to continue in this event. Phelps closest rival is his compatriot Stovall, who is almost a second and a half adrift. It will be a good battle for the silver and bronze, but expect Phelps to tick off another gold and most likely another world record.

Value Bet:No value. Phelps wins.

The Australians: Two Australians qualified but Nick D'arcy had a little indiscretion that brought apart his dream. The other Australian competitor is Travis Nederpelt who will have to improve dramatically to make the final eight.

1st Phelps
2nd Stovall
3rd Matsuda

200m INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY

World Record: Michael Phelps USA 1:54.80 2008
Olympic Champion: Michael Phelps USA 1:57.14
World Champion: Michael Phelps USA 1:54.98

The World Top 10, 2008:
1:54.80 Phelps, Michael USA
1:55.22 Lochte, Ryan USA
1:57.43 Cseh, Laszlo HUN
1:57.72 Goddard, James GBR
1:57.59 Tancock, Liam GBR
1:58.15 Shanteau, Eric USA
1:58.74 Pereira, Thiago BRA
1:59.15 Tait, Gregor GRB
1:59.28 Fujii, Takuro JPN
1:59.65 Jukic, Dinko AUT

The Word: The individual medley events could become the toughest events Phelps competes in. Lochte is one of the superstars of the US Team and is extremely versatile, if there were no Michael Phelps, Lochte would be the undisputed King of the Pool. It may just be this Olympics that Lochte comes out of his skin and out of the shadow of Phelps. Lochte already owns the 200m Backstroke world record and is only 0.42 behind Phelps in this event. The only hindrance that may affect Lochte in this event is the fact that the 200m Backstroke is on the same night as the final of this event. Don't be surprised of a boil over. Cseh will also be thereabouts.

Value Bet: Although it can't be disputed that Phelps is a freak, Lochte is forever improving and laying Phelps could be the best bet here with tough competition coming from Lochte.

The Australians: Leith Brodie will represent Australia in the individual medley and will be a good chance to swim in the final.

1st Phelps
2nd Lochte
3rd Tancock

Men's 4x200 FREESTYLE RELAY

World Record: 7:03.24 USA (Phelps, Lochte, Keller, Vanderkaay) 2007
Olympic Champion: USA (Phelps, Lochte, Vanderkaay, Keller) 7:07.33
World Champion: USA (Phelps, Lochte, Keller, Vanderkaay) 7:03.24

The word: The US team consisting of Phelps, Lochte, Keller and Vanderkaay looks to be unbeatable - bar disqualification due to entering the water before the other finishes. The other chasers will be lead by Australia with a team of Patrick Murphy, Kenrick Monk, Nicholas Sprenger and of course Grant Hackett, they will be right in the race for the silver medal behind the USA. The next best will likely be Canada after their bronze at the 2007 World Championships. In this event it is almost guaranteed that the US will smash the world record.

Value Bet: No value here.

1st USA
2nd Australia
3rd Canada

Men's 4x100 MEDLEY RELAY

World Record: 3:30.68 USA (Piersol, Hansen, Crocker, Lezak)
Olympic Champion: USA (Piersol, Hansen, Crocker, Lezak) 3:30.68
World Champion: Australia (Welsh, Rickard, Lauterstein, Sullivan) 3:34.93

The word: Once again the United States have a massive stranglehold on this event. With the world record holder of the Backstroke (Piersol), Breaststroke (Hansen) and Butterfly (Crocker) it is almost conceivable that the USA heat swimmers could win gold. It will be an exciting race for silver with Australia well entrenched to claim a medal with Ash Delaney, Brenton Rickard, Andrew Lauterstein and Eamon Sullivan combining to defend their World Championship. Of the other medal contenders Russia and Japan appear to be the best equipped to challenge.

Value Bet: Once again, there appears to be no value. Unless you are willing to lay USA with the chance that they are disqualified again.

1st USA
2nd Australia
3rd Japan