State of Origin / Nick Tedeschi / 05 July 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Nick Tedeschi gives you the full run-down on tonight's big State of Origin clash.

NEW SOUTH WALES (v Queensland)
1.5 units at match odds of $2.20
2 units NSW +4.5 at handicap odds of $1.80

Take the emotion out of this.

Sure, Queensland will be pumped for Darren Lockyer's farewell game. He is an Origin legend and a beloved figure in the game.

But this is Origin and most teams, particularly for a decider, are jacked to the eyeballs.

Queensland will be pumped, but so too will the Blues.

No, betting on this must primarily factor in tactics and there is no doubt the Blues grabbed the upper hand in game two with their small-ball strategy that wore the Queensland forwards out.

Thanks to a tempo lift from Kurt Gidley, a mobile forward pack that saw the relatively small Paul Gallen play prop with usual backrowers Greg Bird and Ben Creagh, and a strict adherence to a game plan than being focussed on cut-back runs, second phase play and inside balls, the Blues not only defeated Queensland but also caused a fundamental shift in the Origin power balance.

The Blues have found Queensland's weakness and they exploited it ruthlessly.

Queensland, seemingly, have not recognised the shift. They seem to think they just didn't play well enough, suggesting they will again play large. That is what they have signalled by keeping the likes of Nate Myles and Sam Thaiday in starting backrow positions, and including Jacob Lillyman ahead of Dallas Johnson or David Stagg.

This could prove critical.

If the game plays itself out, strategy-wise, the same as game two, New South Wales will win.

The Blues can be bet on with some confidence in the decider, the first time in many years that could be said.

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PENALTY GOAL (First Scoring Play)
0.5 units on QLD Penalty at $8.00
0.5 units on NSW Penalty at $8.25

Both teams signalled their willingness to take the two early in the second Origin match, with Queensland converting from in front and Jamie Soward hitting the upright from a long way out.

Early penalty shots would not surprise again.

These deciders tend to be low scorers (the last two have totalled 26 and 30) and both teams will be looking to play from in front, realising how valuable a two-point lead could be mentally.

No team is going to pass up easy points this time around, making the penalty a valuable option.

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JAMIE SOWARD (Man of the Match)
0.5 units at MOM odds of $9.00

If the Blues are to win, much of it will be because of their chief playmaker and star kicker Jamie Soward.

After a nervous start to his Origin career, Soward came into his own in the second half of game two where his kicks started finding the turf, he started running the ball more, his defence stiffened up and he seemed to play with more time.

He has all the skills, and with selectors nearly always loathe to give the award to a forward, Soward seems like the best bet if New South Wales are to get the money.

CLICK HERE FOR MAN OF THE MATCH ODDS.