State of Origin / Nick Tedeschi / 02 June 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

New South Wales have an outstanding record in the opening match of the Origin series in recent years and with a first-up victory critical, the Blues will be ready to fire, writes Nick Tedeschi.

New South Wales selectors have made the right decision in ushering in a generational change with seven Blues to make their Origin debut at Ethiad Stadium. It is what was needed. Experience has not worked in the past and it will not work this year. Selectors have taken a gamble and it will at least give New South Wales an opportunity to end Queensland's run of three straight series victories.

There is no doubt that Queensland's strength rests in their experience, class and stability. In terms of Origin matches played, the Queensland squad has 173 games under their belt, an average of just over 10 per player. New South Wales have only 60 games experience with only Luke Bailey and Craig Wing having played ten-plus matches. Queensland had ten of the starting thirteen players in last month's Test match against New Zealand. And the nucleus of the team for Origin I have been there for the previous three series wins.

Many look at this and have declared the Baby Blues no match but it is in the Blues inexperience that their strength lays.

Rather than stick with a defence first strategy that has seen New South Wales incapable of reeling in any deficits in matches past, selectors have opted for speed and flair. The likes of Michael Jennings, Terry Campese and Robbie Farah will provide the Blues with plenty of options in attack and a new front for the Queensland team to deal with. The Maroons, for all their class with the ball, are vulnerable defensively against a creative attack and few teams can definitively stop so many x-factors.

The key for New South Wales, as with all inexperienced teams, is to get off to a good start. That is why game one is so critical to the Blues and their fortunes in this series. Failure to win the opening encounter will leave the young Blues shaken and then needing to win a game three in the pressure cooker that is Lang Park.

Despite the Blues three consecutive series losses, New South Wales have a very good record in the opening match of the series. New South Wales have won two of the last three series openers including a very good 18-10 win last year in Craig Bellamy's first game as Blues coach. Going back even further, New South Wales have won five of the last seven series openers.

New South Wales success in opening games is indicative of a number of things. Firstly, the Blues are at their best when unencumbered by expectation. Secondly, Queensland are renowned for their ability to find weaknesses in the Blues, particularly since Neil Henry joined the Queensland camp, and he has usually needed a game to get a grip on how the Blues will play. Thirdly, Queensland's failure to win a game one outside of Queensland since 1998 suggests they are often vulnerable when playing outside the Sunshine State in a game one.

Value definitely resides with New South Wales in game one and traders should bet them in a number of markets including the Match Odds, Handicap and Margin markets. The Blues can be tried down to 2.05 in the Match Odds market and with 4 ½ points start in the Handicap market. Those looking for a little wider can bet New South Wales to win by over 12 ½ points at 7.0 plus with the new look attacking Blues more than capable of running up a score if they get the rub of the green.