Betfair Official Blog

Rugby League World Cup Final Preview: Impossible To Tip against Australia

Click here to view market

The rugby league World Cup has had an air of inevitability about it from day one and only the cute and the mad would suggest Australia won't win it all, writes Nick Tedeschi.

The rugby league World Cup seems to be Australia's for the taking. Only a miracle of saintly proportions will prevent Darren Lockyer holding aloft the trophy this Saturday evening. In horse racing terminology, Australia are eight lengths clear at the furlong marker and are showing no signs of slowing down. Only a heart attack, a bullet or the great uncertainty of sport will stop them from claiming the rugby league World Cup now.

The tournament has played out pretty much as expected with Australia looking invincible, New Zealand and England fighting it out for the second finals spot and the minnows playing for pride.

In four games Australia has not been challenged. The Kangaroos thumped minnows Papua New Guinea and Fiji, humiliated England and comfortably disposed of New Zealand. They have been methodical in their brutality, callous in their conquering, clinical in their flair.

New Zealand have twice dominated England, put on an expected score against Papua New Guinea and were soundly beaten by Australia. At stages they have played some quality rugby league but at no point have they looked capable of playing a game that would trouble Australia.

When the two teams met to open the World Cup, Australia recorded a 30-6 win on the back of more ball and more incisive running. The Kangaroos had 56% of the ball and made 1641 metres to New Zealand's 1043. Australia's penetration was also a key difference with Australia making 7 line breaks to New Zealand's 1 as well as 64 tackle breaks to the Kiwis 28. Essentially, the Kiwis lacked the class to match it with a more dangerous Kangaroos backline and a more hardened Australian forward pack.

Australia have made two changes from that match with Karmichael Hunt in for the injured Kurt Gidley and Craig Fitzgibbon replacing the dropped Josh Perry. Australia also have two injury concerns with winger Brent Tate and lock Paul Gallen both in doubt. Tate is the biggest concern with David Williams on standby for the Warriors outside back. Anthony Watmough will replace Paul Gallen if the Cronulla skipper is ruled out.

New Zealand have made a number of personnel and positional changes from that encounter. Steve Matai is out with injury while Dean Halatau and Setaimata Sa have been dropped. Isaac Luke, Bronson Harrison and David Fa'alogo are now in the team. Nathan Fien and Thomas Leuluai have switched positions with Fien playing halfback and Leuluai playing hooker while Simon Mannering has moved from the backrow to the centres.

Even though New Zealand will be fired up for the final it seems unlikely that they will be able to run with Australia for eighty minutes. The Kiwi backline is essentially the Warriors backline and they hardly set the NRL on fire this season, ranking tenth in points scored and thirteenth in line breaks.

Against the cream of Australian talent, it appears almost certain that they will leak plenty of points. New Zealand's forward pack is similarly outmatched. Bit-part hooker Thomas Leuluai goes against the premier rake in the game in Cameron Smith while young forwards Adam Blair, Bronson Harrison, Jeremy Smith and David Fa'alogo must somehow contain the likes of Price, Civoniceva, Gallen, Laffranchi and Stewart. Across the paddock New Zealand are outclassed by Australia in every position.

Australia have won sixteen and drawn one of their last twenty matches against New Zealand including eight straight wins under Ricky Stuart. Australia have also won thirteen straight Test matches at Suncorp Stadium with their last defeat at the ground coming back in 1987. Australia's average margin of victory at Suncorp in their last four encounters at the ground has been 25.25 points.

From a betting perspective, Australia can be wagered at better than 1.13 in the match odds market. Those looking for a little more value can bet Australia giving 16 ½ points in the handicap market and Australia in the half-time/full-time double at 1.26. If the match is played in dry conditions, bettors can also lay the 28.5 points at 3.65.

Only a miracle will deliver the World Cup to the land of the long white cloud. Australia will win and all signs are pointing to a hefty margin. Smart traders will lay plenty of points and cheer on the men in green and gold.