Rugby League / Jake Norton / 20 March 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Rugby league and Betfair guru Scott Ferguson gives us an in-depth betting preview of each match of Round 1 of the NRL.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS v PARRAMATTA EELS
ANZ Stadium, 7.45pm Friday AEDT

Market - Souths $1.67 (-4.5 $2.04), Parra $2.42 (+4.5 $1.91) Total 42.5

Rabbitohs
Simply brilliant last week, piling on the points against the Roosters with Sandow and Sutton combining sweetly as halves. But how many times in recent years have they teased us with one great result then resumed normal mediocrity soon after? The media love to dream about success at South Sydney; as punters we need to be more cynical.

Eels
Some soft tackling in the first half made their job very difficult in Auckland. Two late tries brought them some respect on the scoreboard but the horse had bolted. The Eels have plenty of talent in their squad, and travelling across town is a much easier task than budget travel across the Tasman.

Forecast
Are Souths the real deal this season? They can't play much better than last week and you can be sure that Parramatta will put up a better fight. Have to stay out of this one.

BRISBANE BRONCOS V MELBOURNE STORM
Suncorp Stadium, 8.35pm Friday AEDT

Market - Bris $1.67 (-2.5 $1.7), Melb $2.42 (+2.5 $2.04) Total 40.5

Broncos
The new-look Broncos ground out a narrow win over North Qld last week, with tries to new boys Folau, Winterstein and Yow Yeh. Henjak's rebuilt team are young and improving off a high level, plus rumours are flying about a possible return for Justin Hodges, so beware the team sheet. Only one kick separated these two sides last September.

Storm
Melbourne eked out a golden-point win over the Dragons last Friday, despite having considerably less of the ball. The experienced players showed they were a few weeks away from clicking together and the new additions will take a while to work into the mould. Greg Inglis has travelled with the team but is still doubtful. Did anyone in the camp last year know how to stop Folau?

Forecast
Nothing between them last year, Israel Folau has switched allegiances and the fitness of Greg Inglis is worth at least a try either way. Keep your eyes and ears posted for late news. Too many ifs, buts and maybes here - I can see this one being close but can't get involved without knowing who will take the field.

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS v GOLD COAST TITANS
WIN Stadium, 5.30pm Saturday AEDT

Market - StG $1.57 (-6.5 $2.04), Gold C $2.6 (+6.5 $1.7). Total 42.5

Dragons
Bennett's new disciples had most of the ball last week but couldn't reach the line often enough to open the season. At the very least it showed that there is plenty to work with for Bennett. Controlling the ball is half the battle and the Titans aren't likely to be as resilient. Jamie Soward was targeted as the defensive weak link last week and needs to tighten up before that becomes a regular trend.

Titans
Started the season well as per usual but now they face their bogey team, having lost all four previous clashes. Prince and Bailey led the Knights a merry dance last week as the Titans took advantage of the warm conditions. On the road though, it's a different story and until the Titans learn to win away games regularly, it's hard to seriously consider backing them.

Forecast
Two clashes at this venue have both been 18pt victories to the Dragons. A golden-point loss away to the league benchmark has to be rated much higher than a comfortable home win against a team tipped to miss the finals. Back the home team giving away the start.

PENRITH PANTHERS v BULLDOGS
CUA Stadium, 7.30pm Saturday AEDT

Market - Penr $2.54 (+6.5 $1.64), Bulldogs $1.59 (-6.5 $2.04) Total 42.5

Panthers
The signs were so ominous after last week's loss to the Sharks that Penrith have signed another halfback Luke Walsh during the week from Newcastle. His signing will make a few players nervous after Jarrod Sammut inexplicably kicked early in the tackle count on several occasions last week. Frank Pritchard returns to the squad and adds much-needed experience.

Bulldogs
How much of the demolition of Manly was caused by self-destruction, and how much of it by great play from the Bulldogs? Idris and Goodwin scored two tries each, Kimmorley, Ennis and Morris slotted straight in and El Masri converted everything. Kevin Moore has plenty to work with and after just one game, fans have banished season 2008 to just a bad dream.

Forecast
You have to go back to 2006 for the last Bulldogs win in this clash, or for them even to get close, but the 2009 Bulldogs are a different breed. Home advantage counts for something but I struggle to see how the Panthers can get within 10 points on last week's performance.

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS v WESTS TIGERS
Dairy Farmers Stadium, 9.30pm Saturday AEDT

Market - Nth Qld $1.43 (-8.5 $1.92), Wests $3.25 (+8.5 $1.86) Total 44.5

Cowboys
Denied by a field goal in the dying stages by the Broncos last week, the Cowboys return home with plenty to offer their fans. The Bowen-Thurston combo looked back in business last weekend, and the fast playing of the ball promises action-packed matches. They got sloppy in the second half last week and were punished for it by one of the elite teams in the competition. This week's opponents have no such claim to that mantle.

Tigers
Conceding 26 points in a half is not a great way to start the season. To their credit, they managed to shut Canberra down in the second half and record an eight-point win, after tightening up on costly missed and ineffective tackles. The trip to Townsville won't hold many fears, in the same round last year the Tigers won by 20 points, starting at this sort of price.

Forecast
Do we go with the magic of Bowen and Thurston or remember this time last year when the Tigers pulled off the upset? I think is a match best left for trading in-running, assuming of course, that you're not several beers in after a glorious day at Rosehill!

CANBERRA RAIDERS v SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Canberra Stadium, 2pm Sunday AEDT

Market - Canb $1.52 (-6.5 $1.86), Syd $2.74 (+6.5 $1.98) Total 42.5

Raiders
Started well against Wests on Monday night, leading 26-18 at the break. The wheels fell off though, being blanked in the second half and conceding three tries to lose by eight. Possession was wasted time and again, even the bench added nothing to the mix. Expect David Furner to have stressed playing out the full 80 minutes this week. Their home ground was a fortress last year - three games lost were against the end of year top three.

Roosters
A shocker on Sunday at the SFS followed by a shambles on the media front with the Jake Friend affair. Fittler's desperation to win matches means he's too afraid to suspend one of his stars, so the league rightly stepped in and did it for him. If there is any team ethic in the club, then this week will have created tension amongst the players. Manly were woeful last week as a result, can the Eastern Suburbs team do any better? The forwards were caught out by the faster tempo of the games with two referees last week, and you can't change a flat-footed pack overnight. Mason might be back but it's hard to see him having a big impact first-up after a knee injury.

Forecast
One team has form to speak of and in an added bonus, returns to the big advantage of home turf. The other side was flogged at home, leaking nine tries, and Fittler is being backed to be first coach sacked. The Raiders could easily win this by plenty but the total is most appealing. They averaged just over 32pts at home last year, only two matches in Bruce tallied less than 45pts. Take the over confidently.

MANLY SEA EAGLES v NZ WARRIORS
Brookvale Oval, Sunday 3pm AEDT

Market - Manly $1.6 (-6.5 $1.91) NZ $2.56 (+6.5 $1.74) Total 42.5

Sea Eagles
Let's look at the negatives from last week - premiership hangover, pre-season interrupted by playing in the UK, appalling weather conditions, a player punching a sponsor at a club function, and that Brett Stewart thing. Result- 34-12 loss at the hands of the rather impressive Bulldogs. One week later, a bunch of scandals at other clubs has taken the spotlight away. Despite missing the creativity of Stewart, Manly are more than capable of regrouping and bouncing back.

Warriors
If you believe in karma, then the Warriors were always going to win last week. Stacey Jones returns off the bench but they will miss the input of Lance Hohaia and Ben Matulino. The Warriors hold a 4-3 winning record at Brookvale so if there's ever a good time to strike again, now could be it. Or then again, it could be like facing the wounded lion.

Forecast
Good teams bounce back from adversity, and it doesn't get much worse than what the premiers had to face last week. I'm inclined to take a punt on Manly at the extra handicap of -18.5 which should trade at around $5 once the markets become liquid.

CRONULLA SHARKS v NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Toyota Stadium, Monday 7pm AEDT

Market - Cron $1.85 (-2.5 $2.02), Newc $2.14 (+2.5 $1.83) Total 40.5

Sharks
A good win in atrocious conditions last week has quickly turned sour with major injuries to Kearney and Ross, and yet another player in Seymour who can't handle a beer being suspended. That lumps added pressure onto Trent Barrett to turn the Sharks into a team capable of scoring more points. Few scoring opportunities means there's no room for errors in defence and that's hard enough in a settled line-up, let alone one with three key changes.

Knights
Scoring the first two tries against the Titans was a false dawn for Knights fans with the afternoon heat and the skill of Scott Prince turning the game completely. The extra day to recover is a plus. Hooker Isaac De Gois knows the Shark game plan well, and naturally will be keen to beat his former teammates.

Forecast
In recent years, there has been little in this clash with no more than four points between them at the final whistle. Early in the week I was keen to take the plus on the Knights but the market has moved significantly with Seymour out. So much so that the Sharks could become value, after all, they were very resilient during the Greg Bird saga last season. No bet.

PLAYS of the WEEK
At the time of writing, the handicap markets had only just been released so prices will converge closer to game time. And remember, laying one side is the same as backing the other - sometimes it's a way of getting a better price.

Several games in the very tricky to line up category and a few cracking bets. In order of preference

Dragons -6.5

Bulldogs -6.5

Raiders v Roosters over 42.5pts

And for a speculative bet at a bigger price, Manly -18.5 at around $5.