Rugby League / Lindsay Andrew / 11 June 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Is it just me or is this swine flu the most over-hyped media story of all time? At least with 'man flu', the victim is bedridden and exhausted. A full post-Origin round is further complicated by training disruptions and boycott threats.

WARRIORS (1.67) v NEWCASTLE (2.42) +4.5 Total 40.5
Mount Smart Stadium Friday 1835 AEST

WARRIORS

The season went from bad to worse last week for the Warriors, losing to the Sharks 18-10. Ivan Cleary thought the team struggled to back up after a very physical game against Wests the week before. Now they have a short recovery cycle and face one of the better sides in the comp. Joel Moon misses with concussion, Lance Hohaia replaces him while Patrick Ah Van returns after a hamstring injury. Stacey Jones plays his 250th NRL game.

KNIGHTS

Newcastle have gone from contenders to top spot to eighth place with two losses in their past three. Giving up a half-time lead against cellar-dwellers Parramatta was certainly not their best form, it seemed to fall apart once Dureau left the field. He will miss up to six weeks with a groin injury. McManus returns after a rest last week, while Gidley has been given a breather, replaced by McDonnell.

VERDICT

The Warriors have won three in a row at home against Newcastle, but only four of 12 clashes. Newcastle's record with the triumvirate of Gidley, Dureau and Mullen is very strong; without them in combination, they are just another team. This match will start later than normal and there has been heavy rain in Auckland this week, which should make scoring that little bit harder. With no clear winner in this match, I'll go for the new betting option this week, the TriBet market - back either side to win by under 6.5pts.

BRISBANE (2.24) v BULLDOGS (1.79)
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 1935

BRONCOS

Last week they were dead set embarrassing against the Storm, missing 56 tackles and conceding 13 line breaks. Why they were forced to back up two days after Origin is bizarre, they have always formed the backbone of the Maroons team. It was extremely poor scheduling and no surprise they had very little interest in the match. Justin Hodges is out with a knee injury and Joel Clinton for disciplinary reasons. Karmichael Hunt and Antonio Winterstein may or may not play, depending on swine flu and medical advice. Lockyer returns to the side after being rested last week.

BULLDOGS

A bye for the Bulldogs means a chance to freshen up after three very tough assignments (Dragons, Storm, Knights - all away from home) and only Hannant had to deal with Origin and the aftermath. The loss against Newcastle featured a lot of wasted possession and poor decision-making, especially in the first half when they trailed 20-0. That was their first blip for the season.

VERDICT

Suncorp Stadium holds no fears for the Bulldogs, having won six times in eight visits, although it's split 2-2 in the last four here. Bizarrely, the away team has won the last six clashes as well. The Broncos started the week odds-on but the doubts over Hunt and if the Broncos want to play this game now makes them the underdog. Pandemic aside, this should be a great match, but there are too many queries for me to have a bet here.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS (2.24) +4.5 v GOLD COAST (1.78)
Bluetongue Stadium Saturday 1730

ROOSTERS

Brad Fittler put out a call to Arthur Beetson last week in a desperate attempt to get his side working together. It looked to have done the trick for the first hour against Manly before they succumbed to the pressure and lost 38-18, which flattered the opposition. Even still, their last three losses have been by a combined 94 points, it's hard to make excuses for all of them.

TITANS

The Titans were very impressive on Monday night against the Dragons, storming to a 20pt half-time lead and then hanging on for dear life. Injuries complicate this week's task, with Bailey and Rogers ruled out. White replaced Bailey in the front row, while Campbell switches to five-eighth with Zillman taking his place at fullback. Harrison returns to the side after being a late withdrawal on doctor's orders.

VERDICT

The Titans are equal-top on points and haven't had any blips in their form all year, despite injuries to key players. The Roosters have been equally as consistent - diabolically bad. They have to get better at some stage, but there are easier matches to support them in.

PENRITH (2.2) +2.5 v MANLY (1.8)
CUA Stadium Saturday 1935

PANTHERS

Convincing win over Wests last week without the injured Jennings who is still missing. Luke Lewis now joins him in the treatment room with a fractured toe. Of their last 10 matches, the Panthers have lost just three - to StGeorge-Illawarra, Brisbane and Melbourne. That's a strong formline. They'll be wearing an all-pink outfit supporting breast cancer research this week.

SEA EAGLES

While the margin of 20pts appeared comfortable, it wasn't until late in the game that Manly killed off the Roosters last week. The end-to-end try of David Williams after 57 minutes broke the heart of the Roosters. Three wins out of their last four has been their best period of the season. Jamie Lyon only played 14 minutes last week before limping off with an ankle injury. He is named to play but I wouldn't be 100% sure until you saw him on the field. Only twice in the last eight matches has a Manly try been the first scoring play.

VERDICT

Penrith have the advantage of an extra day's preparation and a win at Brookvale early in the year when Manly were struggling. The last 12 games are split at six wins apiece. I find this one hard to pick, so taking the home side at odds-against appeals. Panthers to win

SOUTH SYDNEY (4.3) +12.5 v MELBOURNE (1.29)
Members Equity Stadium, Perth Saturday 2130 AEST

RABBITOHS

Souths' recent results aren't good - battered by the Cowboys on the road last week and a 16pt loss at home to Canberra, a team below them on the table. The past eight games have reaped just two wins and a draw (against Cronulla, Wests and Parramatta) - that is not the form of a finals team. Giving away home advantage to the form team of the NRL probably wasn't such a great idea.

STORM

They faced a weakened Brisbane side without Hodges and Lockyer but destroyed them 48-4, bouncing back from a 16pt loss to the Bulldogs on neutral soil. Sika Manu is left behind due to flu hype.

VERDICT

When Melbourne start scoring over 40pts, opposing defences get worried. Souths miss a lot of tackles, they'll need more than a year's supply of Selley's No More Gaps to plug the line breaks. This could be a rather wide margin. Storm -12.5

CANBERRA (1.44) v CRONULLA (3.2) +8.5
Canberra Stadium Sunday 1400

RAIDERS

Playmaker Campese returns after Origin duty. It was encouraging to see Canberra win without him in a decisive 34-18 result over Souths in round 12. That made it two wins in a row going into the bye last week, a nice turnaround from four consecutive losses, all to likely finals teams.

SHARKS

Two wins in a row for Cronulla gives them hope of avoiding the wooden spoon. Beating Parramatta and the Warriors isn't the strongest formline, but they have to start somewhere. Defence has been their strength, restricting their opposition to just 10 points each time. Former captain Paul Gallen returns after a shoulder injury.

VERDICT

The Sharks have won four in a row at Canberra Stadium so don't go thinking this one is easy to pick. The Raiders attack has been potent, scoring 34 and 38 points in recent wins, while the Sharks average just 14. For the Sharks to win, it all comes down to defence, and I feel Canberra are more likely to run in a score that the visitors can't reach. If anything, Canberra -8.5.

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (1.69) v NORTH QUEENSLAND (2.44) +4.5
WIN Stadium Sunday 1500

DRAGONS

Not a pretty result last week on the Gold Coast, but considering they were 20pts down at the orange break, losing by only four wasn't so bad. Darius Boyd sat out with the virus but returns this week. The three times the Dragons have conceded 20pts or more, they have lost.

COWBOYS

Four wins on the trot for the Cowboys, kicked off by their win over the Dragons in R9 is finally living up to the pre-season hype. No points for guessing their run of form is heavily based on the stunning form of Johnathan Thurston.

VERDICT

The visitors have won on three of their last four visits, but of course that was in the pre-Bennett era. The Cowboys won this clash at home by four points just over a month ago, but that was 24hrs after the City-Country match, and became a nightmare journey for the Dragons players who backed up. Thurston ran riot that day, scoring 20pts himself. I doubt Bennett will allow that to happen again. Great defence against great offence, it promises to be a great match - too close to call.

PARRAMATTA (1.9) v WESTS TIGERS (2.1) +2.5
Parramatta Stadium Monday 1900

EELS

A come from behind win over Newcastle last weekend inspires much hope at Parramatta, lifting them out of the bottom three on the table. The new halves combination of Mortimer and Robson is starting to impress and off-field things are improving for the Eels as well. Kristian Inu returns after suspension.

TIGERS

Six weeks ago, the Tigers were finals contenders. Now they only sit above the Sharks and the Roosters, teams we all rate as poor. Chris Lawrence returns after injury, adding more bite to the centres, alongside exciting talent Blake Ayshford. After tight losses to the Bulldogs, Souths and the Broncos, the last two weeks have been disappointing.

VERDICT

Eight wins in a row for Parramatta over Wests, a gulf between the form of the two teams and home advantage. Why aren't the Eels much shorter in price? Does the return of Lawrence really mean that much? Eels -6.5 in the TriBet market for me.

BETS of the WEEK
Penrith win
Parramatta -6.5 (TriBet market)
Melbourne -12.5